瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250708

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate still show a situation of excessive supply and weak demand for the time being, but the industry expectations have warmed up, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high levels with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 63,880 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 70,067 lots, up 9,339 lots; the position of the main contract was 338,034 lots, up 15,500 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts was 1,360 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GME were 15,555 lots/ton, down 5,481 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,300 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 980 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 696 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 5,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 1,691 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume was 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume was 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 55%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,270,000 units, up 19,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,307,000 units, up 81,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the monthly export volume was 212,000 units, up 12,000 units [2]. Option Situation - The total position of call options was 109,977 lots, down 78,188 lots; the total position of put options was 44,356 lots, down 55,958 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 40.33%, down 12.9797 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.23%, up 0.0119 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Shanghai Xiba plans to participate in the auction of the lithium sulfide business - related assets publicly listed for transfer by Youyan Rare Earth; Langte Intelligent invests 15 million yuan to set up a venture capital partnership; from January to June 2025, the average price cut of new energy vehicles was 23,000 yuan, with a price - cut intensity of 12%, and in June, it was 15,000 yuan, with a price - cut intensity of 10.4%; CATL and Geely Auto signed a strategic cooperation agreement [2]. Technical and Operational Suggestions - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were above the 0 - axis, and the green column slightly expanded. The operation suggestion was to conduct short - selling transactions at high levels with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [2].