Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the domestic supply is becoming more abundant as imported soybeans arrive at ports, which exerts downward pressure on the meal market. Although the aquaculture season boosts the demand for rapeseed meal, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens its demand expectation. The price of rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate in the short term due to the influence of the decline in US soybean prices [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the domestic supply of vegetable oil is abundant, and the high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills restricts the market price. However, the decrease in the mill's operating rate eases the output pressure, and the potential tightening of China - Canada economic and trade relations may affect rapeseed exports to China. The price of rapeseed oil may experience increased short - term fluctuations due to the boost from the rise in palm oil prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9598 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2576 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 695 Canadian dollars/ton (down 24.1 Canadian dollars), and that of the active rapeseed futures is 5039 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan) [2]. - Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 54 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 266 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Positions: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 294,741 lots (down 12,510 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 568,141 lots (up 2,383 lots). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 18,102 lots (down 986 lots), and for rapeseed meal are - 14,180 lots (down 1,729 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 2,720 (up 1,915), and that of rapeseed meal is 15,799 (up 581) [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9700 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2480 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9732.5 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed is 4988.49 yuan/ton (down 160.17 yuan) [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 152 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is - 96 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan) [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8100 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8550 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan). The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1600 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1210 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 320 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the annual forecasted production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 tons (down 15.37 tons), and the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 tons (up 10 tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 28.79 tons (up 4.13 tons) [2]. - Profits and operating rates: The import rapeseed crushing profit is 53 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.53% (up 1.07%) [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 tons (unchanged), the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.01 tons (down 1.14 tons), and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons (down 0.64 tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 59.95 tons (down 1.64 tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory is 35.58 tons (down 1.32 tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 6.9 tons (down 0.3 tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 29.3 tons (down 0.8 tons) [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.11 tons (down 0.89 tons), and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.32 tons (down 1.16 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 tons (down 87 tons) [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social consumer retail sales of catering revenue is 4578.2 billion yuan (up 411.2 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 17.1% (up 0.16%), and that of put options is 17.1% (up 0.17%). The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.07% (up 0.3%), and that of put options is 13.11% (up 0.34%) [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 14.23% (down 0.2%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 18.72% (down 0.54%). The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.14% (up 0.04%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.45% (down 0.44%) [2]. Industry News - Canadian rapeseed futures: On Monday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the largest single - day decline in nearly a month due to expected rainfall in Canada, which improved the crop growth outlook [2]. - US soybean situation: As of July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is currently favorable [2].
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250708
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-08 08:53