Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The global natural rubber production areas are gradually opening for tapping. There are still weather disturbances in Yunnan, with firm raw material purchase prices. In Hainan, the tapping operations are gradually resuming, but the supply is still lower than the same period in previous years. The total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse continuing to reduce inventory and the general trade inventory increasing at a narrowing rate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, but this week, as the enterprise maintenance ends, production will gradually recover, which will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,985 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was -875 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton; the 8 - 9 spread was -10 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan/ton. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,915 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 152,867 lots, with a daily decrease of 793 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 30,922 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,750 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was -20,424 lots, with a daily increase of 969 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was -6,213 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,790 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 188,790 tons, with a daily decrease of 30 tons; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 34,272 tons, with a daily increase of 1,512 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 13,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The Shanghai rubber basis was -35 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was -120 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,228 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 158 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 34 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 65.2 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.35 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 62 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.52 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 47.8 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.65 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 152.4 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 15 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 6.6 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5.8 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, with a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, with a decrease of 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly full - steel tire operating rate was 63.75%, with a decrease of 1.89 percentage points; the weekly semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.41%, with a decrease of 7.64 percentage points. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 40.45 days, with a decrease of 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 46.48 days, with a decrease of 1.67 days. - The monthly output of full - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, with an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, with an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.08%, with a daily decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.63%, with a daily decrease of 1.2 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 24.25%, with a daily increase of 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.25%, with a daily increase of 1.16 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From July 6th to July 12th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. North of the equator, it was mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and southern Thailand, and the impact on tapping decreased slightly. South of the equator, it was mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the impact on tapping increased slightly. - As of July 6th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40%. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250708
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-08 08:52