合成橡胶产业日报-20250708

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the weak domestic raw material market and continuous shipment pressure, the overall inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber enterprises decreased slightly last week, but the downstream shipment pressure remained high, and the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises is expected to increase slightly [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 11 days, and some enterprises reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Most tire enterprises' production schedules were stable, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. This week, as enterprise maintenance ends, production will resume, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,305 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 28,033, down 2,243; the 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 85 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 1,600 tons, up 500 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions decreased, with a decline of 50 - 100 yuan/ton; the basis of synthetic rubber was 145 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil was 69.58 dollars/barrel, up 1.28 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 67.93 dollars/barrel, up 1.43 dollars/barrel; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 577 dollars/ton, down 1.75 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) was 1,060 dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.91%, up 1.16 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 22,330 tons, down 5,120 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 44.97%, down 0.05 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.98%, down 1.56 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 164 yuan/ton, up 414 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, down 1,300 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,800 tons, up 430 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 70.41%, down 7.64 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.75%, down 1.89 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.45 days, down 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.48 days, down 1.67 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of July 3, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56% [2]. - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.13%, down 6.27 percentage points month - on - month and 15.85 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, down 0.70 percentage points month - on - month and 0.96 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In June 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 920,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market were about 5.333 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].