苹果产业日报-20250708

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Summer cooling fruits flood the market, impacting apple demand and slowing down sales. After bagging, farmers are more willing to sell, leading to a weak adjustment in spot prices and dragging down futures prices. However, the current inventory is at a five - year low, strongly supporting prices, so the market is expected to move in a volatile manner. Continued attention should be paid to production [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract (daily, yuan/ton) is 7658, a decrease of 75. The closing price of the October contract (daily, yuan/ton) is also 7658, a decrease of 75. The main contract's open interest (daily, lots) is 89425, a decrease of 228. The number of warehouse receipts (daily, sheets) is 0. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders (daily, lots) is 3179, a decrease of 2674 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, grade 80 and above, first - and second - grade farmer - supplied goods, daily, yuan/jin) is 4, a decrease of 0.1. The spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, grade 75 and above, daily, yuan/jin) is 2.6, unchanged. The spot price in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, grade 75 and above, daily, yuan/jin) is 4.5, unchanged. The spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, grade 70 and above, semi - commodities, daily, yuan/jin) is 4, a decrease of 0.2 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area (annual, thousand hectares) is 1955.77, a decrease of 19.58. The national apple production (annual, ten thousand tons) is 5128.51, an increase of 168.34 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The wholesale price of apples (weekly, yuan/kg) is 9.73, an increase of 0.1. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples (weekly, yuan/kg) is 9.54, an increase of 0.03. The total national apple cold - storage inventory (weekly, ten thousand tons) is 99.31, a decrease of 7.6. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples (weekly) is 0.14, a decrease of 0.01. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples (weekly) is 0.06, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples (tons) is 50000, a decrease of 20000. The monthly export value of apples (ten thousand US dollars) is 5152.5, a decrease of 2552.9. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts (ten thousand US dollars) is 2201050.17. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged apple 80 storage merchants (weekly, yuan/jin) is 0.8, a decrease of 0.1 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines (weekly, yuan/kg) is 8.84, an increase of 0.16. The wholesale price of Ya pears (weekly, yuan/kg) is 6.68, a decrease of 0.04. The wholesale price of bananas (weekly, yuan/kg) is 6.47, a decrease of 0.03. The wholesale price of watermelons (weekly, yuan/kg) is 3.96, a decrease of 0.02. The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong (weekly, vehicles) is 7.8, unchanged. The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong (weekly, vehicles) is 20, an increase of 1.2 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples (daily, %) is 17.18, an increase of 0.45. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples (daily, %) is 17.17, an increase of 0.46 [2] 3.7 Industry News - On July 8, 2025, apple trading remained sluggish. Downstream merchants were less enthusiastic about restocking, clearly bargaining, and the sales speed was slow. In both western and Shandong production areas, the prices of stored apples continued to adjust weakly. According to Mysteel's preliminary estimate based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production is expected to be 3736.64 tons, an increase of 85.93 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 2, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 99.31 tons, a decrease of 7.60 tons from the previous week. The sales speed in the off - season was slow, slower than the previous week and also slower year - on - year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area was 13.98%, a decrease of 0.78% from the previous week, and the inventory clearance speed was slower year - on - year. There were not many merchants in the Shandong production area, and they still preferred cost - effective supplies, with overall slow sales. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 6.43%, a decrease of 0.68% from the previous week, and the sales were slightly slower than the previous week. The trading in the Shaanxi production area was still concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the rest of the production areas had cleared their inventories [2]