建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250709

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Contract performance: The 2508 contract closed at 3445, down 46 or 1.32%; the 2509 contract closed at 3579, down 30 or 0.83%; the 2510 contract closed at 3368, down 7 or 0.21% [7] - Spot price: The average price in the main production areas was 2.49 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day [8] Core View - The expectation of a large inventory of laying hens this year was reflected in the spot price earlier. With the arrival of the summer peak season, the futures market had solid bottom support last week, and it was expected that the peak season would lead the spot market out of the slump. However, egg prices continued to fall over the weekend, mainly due to the weakness in the northern red egg - producing areas and poor sales in Beijing, the main sales area. The failure of the price - increase expectation led to a sharp decline in the futures market today, and market sentiment turned extremely weak [8] Operational Suggestions - In the short term, the technical breakdown of peak - season contracts and the difficulty of the spot market to rise in the short term may continue to suppress the futures market, but it is not advisable to be overly bearish. The market's point of divergence lies in when the spot price will stop falling and enter the peak season. It is recommended to observe the recent culling rhythm and summer temperature changes and conduct phased operations [8] Group 3: Industry News - In - production laying hens inventory: As of the end of May, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in the country was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.2% [9] - Chick - hatchling volume: In May, the monthly hatchling volume of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 44.98 million, slightly less than that in April and slightly higher than the same period in 2024 [9] - Culling volume: As of the first three weeks of June 6, the national culling volumes were 19.97 million, 21.02 million, and 19.53 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after May, with four consecutive weeks of month - on - month increases and a slight decline this week. As of June 12, the average culling age was 512 days, 3 days earlier than last week and 22 days earlier than last month [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes data charts such as China's monthly inventory of in - production laying hens, egg - farming profit, average price in the main egg - producing areas, seasonal trend of the egg 07 contract, basis of the egg 07 contract, and the 08 - 09 spread of eggs, with data sources including Wind,卓创资讯, and交易法门 [10][17][19]