建信期货油脂日报-20250709

Report Overview - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The center of the oil and fat market has been rising, driven by the favorable US biofuel policy. The continuous increase in the position of the palm oil contract P09 has led to a significant upward movement. However, the report believes that the upward space of palm oil is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities near the resistance level [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Quotation Information: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes are San Cai 09 + 60 and Yi Cai 09 + 240. In the East China market, the basis price of soybean oil is spot basis 09 + 150 for first - grade soybean oil, Y2509 + 220 from July to September, and Y2601 + 300 from October to January. In the South China market, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil is P09 + 150 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7]. - Market Analysis: The palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange increased in position and rose. Only the P09 contract increased its position by more than 70,000 lots and moved strongly upward. The US biofuel policy has driven the upward movement of the oil and fat market. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release monthly data on Thursday. A survey shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of June is expected to remain flat or decline, ending the previous four - month growth trend due to unexpected production reduction and strong exports. The US has imposed a 32% tariff on Indonesia and a 25% tariff on Malaysia, which may reduce Indonesia's exports and theoretically benefit the Malaysian market [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory, Production, and Export Forecasts: Reuters' survey shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of June may drop to 1.99 million tons, with a production of 1.7 million tons (a 4.04% month - on - month decrease) and exports of 1.45 million tons. Bloomberg's forecast data shows a production of 1.74 million tons, exports of 1.44 million tons, and an inventory of 2 million tons in June [8]. - Production Details: The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) states that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in June 2025 is 1.69 million tons, a 4.69% month - on - month decrease. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 0.68% month - on - month, while that in Sabah decreased by 11.95% and in Sarawak decreased by 8.98%. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.24% month - on - month [8]. - Export Data: The shipping survey agency SGS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,195,265 tons, an 11.7% increase from May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous month. ITS reported exports of 1.382 million tons (a 4.7% increase), and AmSpec reported 1.286 million tons (a 4.5% increase) [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil and fourth - grade soybean oil, the spot price of South China's 24 - degree palm oil, the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, the spreads of palm oil contracts (P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1), and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Malaysian ringgit. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][15][17]