Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The iron ore market is currently supported by strong demand from steel mills due to their low willingness to cut production for loss - control and the support from downstream demand in the context of export rush. However, the expiration of the US 90 - day suspension period and the uncertain export policy, along with the weak domestic economic recovery and the decline in real estate investment, suggest that the iron ore price will be weak in the medium - term [10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On July 8, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, opening low and then rising. It closed at 733.0 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [7] - The prices of major iron ore outer - market quotes and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained flat compared with the previous trading day [9] - The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2509 contract was rising, with the K and J values turning up and the D value continuing to rise. The red column of the MACD indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2509 contract had narrowed for two consecutive trading days [9] 3.2 Futures Market Data | Contract Code | Previous Closing Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Capital Inflow/Outflow | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 | 3061 | 3059 | 3074 | 3050 | 3063 | - 0.13% | 954,572 | 2,168,547 | - 28,783 | - 0.59 | | HC2510 | 3191 | 3186 | 3198 | 3176 | 3191 | - 0.06% | 341,788 | 1,593,691 | 8,136 | 0.18 | | SS2508 | 12640 | 12635 | 12790 | 12625 | 12700 | 0.32% | 103,281 | 90,238 | - 204 | 0.02 | | I2509 | 731 | 731 | 736 | 727.5 | 733 | 0.14% | 233,496 | 655,157 | 7,312 | 1.00 | [5] 3.3 Futures Market Position Data | Contract | Top 20 Long Positions | Top 20 Short Positions | Top 20 Long Position Change | Top 20 Short Position Change | Long - Short Comparison | Deviation Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 | 1,341,471 | 1,295,405 | - 20,077 | - 27,519 | 7,442 | 0.56% | | HC2510 | 1,129,177 | 1,119,049 | 3,849 | 9,683 | - 5,834 | - 0.52% | | SS2508 | 65,699 | 67,169 | - 1,189 | 128 | - 1,317 | - 1.98% | | J2509 | 29,514 | 33,265 | 169 | - 59 | 228 | 0.73% | | JM2509 | 293,448 | 335,872 | 4,208 | - 6,162 | 10,370 | 3.30% | | I2509 | 396,848 | 431,467 | 2,066 | 7,989 | - 5,923 | - 1.43% | [8] 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Demand Side: The molten iron output has turned down but remains above 240,000 tons, a relatively high level. The steel production reduction process of steel enterprises is rather tortuous, and the support on the iron ore demand side is still strong. Nearly 60% of the sample enterprises are still profitable, so the steel mills' willingness to control losses and cut production is not high [10] - Supply Side: The shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil last week dropped significantly, a regular decline after the shipping volume rush. The arrival volume increased. Based on the data of the past four weeks, it is expected that the overall supply will remain loose until mid - July and then gradually tighten [11] 3.5 Industry News - On July 8, the National Development and Reform Commission and other three departments issued a notice on the construction of zero - carbon industrial parks, aiming to promote energy - use and carbon - emission management, energy - efficiency and carbon - efficiency diagnosis, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in parks [12] - On July 7, Beisente said in an interview that he would meet with his Chinese counterparts in the next few weeks and hoped to expand cooperation beyond trade [12] - Trump announced a 25% tariff on Japanese and South Korean goods effective August 1, and tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on goods from Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, etc., also effective August 1 [12] 3.6 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the September contract, the shipping volume of Brazilian and Australian iron ore, the arrival volume at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization rate, major port iron ore trading volume, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, sample steel mill tax - free molten iron cost, blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average molten iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly output of five major steel products, and steel mill inventory of five major steel products [17][18][21][22][27][29][32][37][38]
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250709
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-09 01:50