《能源化工》日报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Methanol - The inland methanol market has limited short - term downside due to July's concentrated maintenance. The port market faces dual pressures: expected 1.2 million tons of imports in July as Iranian plants resume production, and planned maintenance of coastal MTO reducing olefin demand. A slight inventory build - up is expected in July, with stronger price suppression. Risk of delayed shipping from Iran's low inventory should be watched [1]. Urea - Short - term price drivers are export demand and supply changes. Increased export demand and eased supply pressure support prices, while weakening agricultural and industrial demand limit price increases. Supply pressure is eased as daily production drops below 200,000 tons due to temporary maintenance. Agricultural demand will end soon, and industrial demand recovers slowly, so long positions should not be overly chased [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are in a strong - side oscillation due to the delayed US tariff policy and OPEC+ production increase. Demand suppression is mitigated, and the refinery operation rate is high due to tight diesel supply. Geopolitical risks exist, but no actual supply disruption has occurred. After the summer peak, prices will face pressure, and short - term trading should be range - bound [11]. Pure Benzene - Domestic plant maintenance reduces pure benzene load, but overseas load increases. Downstream demand has a slight rebound. Overall, weekly supply - demand improves marginally, but high port inventory and new production expectations limit price support. A cautious short or wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a reverse spread strategy for month - spreads [33]. Styrene - Supply is expected to increase as some plant maintenance is postponed and previous maintenance units resume. Demand weakens as downstream losses increase and inventory rises. Port inventory is rising, and the market lacks buying support after paper - cargo delivery. Short - term supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline. Short - term trading should be short - biased, and options should sell call options above 7500 for EB08 [34]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply - demand tightness eases as PXN recovers, domestic maintenance is postponed, and overseas supply resumes. Oil price support is limited, but 7 - 8 month new PTA plant start - ups may keep supply tight. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [40]. - PTA: July maintenance is limited, new plants are stable, and downstream polyester may cut production. Supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the basis is falling. Oil and PX support prices in the short - term, but terminal feedback restricts price increases. Trade in the 4600 - 4900 range with a short - bias at the upper limit [40]. - MEG: Supply increases at home and abroad, with a balanced supply - demand in July and inventory build - up in 8 - 9 months. Domestic coal - based plants may restart, and imports are expected to rise. Terminal demand is weakening, so prices face pressure. Short - term trading should sell call options at 4400 for EG09 and use a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 [40]. - Short - fiber: Both supply and demand are weak as plants may cut production in July, and downstream demand is poor. Processing fees are mainly restored by PTA basis changes, and prices follow raw materials. Expand processing fees at low levels and watch for production cuts [40]. - Bottle - chip: Supply may improve as some plants cut production in July, but high inventory exists. Processing fees are recovering, and prices follow costs. Trading strategies are similar to PTA, with a positive spread for PR8 - 9 and expanding processing fees at the lower limit [40]. Polyolefins - Both PP and PE have supply contractions. PP maintenance losses increase, and PE domestic maintenance peaks while imports are expected to be low. Cost - based valuations have recovered, and July balance sheets show inventory reduction, but overall pressure remains. Short - term support from inventory reduction can be watched, and mid - term short positions in PP can be established when prices reach 7200 - 7300 [44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - Price and Spread: MA2601 and MA2509 prices decreased on July 8th. MA91 spread decreased, and the Taicang basis increased. Spot prices in various regions mostly declined, and some regional spreads changed [1]. - Inventory: Middle - sized methanol enterprises' inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased [1]. - Operating Rates: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased, while some downstream operating rates like MTO and MTBE increased, and others like formaldehyde decreased [1]. Urea - Futures and Spot Prices: Some futures contract prices increased on July 8th, and some spot prices remained stable or changed slightly [7]. - Supply and Demand Data: Daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days data showed various changes. Supply pressure eased, and demand had different trends in agriculture and industry [7]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: Brent, WTI, and SC prices had different changes on July 9th. Spreads between different contracts and different oil types also changed [11]. - Product Oil: Product oil prices and spreads, as well as cracking spreads, showed various trends [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Spot and futures prices, spreads, and inventory data changed. Domestic and overseas operating rates had different trends, and overall supply - demand had marginal changes [33]. - Styrene: Spot and futures prices, spreads, and inventory data changed. Supply is expected to increase, and demand weakens [34]. Polyester Industry - Upstream Prices: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed on July 8th [40]. - PX: PX prices, spreads, and operating rates changed. Supply - demand tightness eases [40]. - PTA: PTA prices, spreads, processing fees, and operating rates changed. Supply - demand is expected to weaken [40]. - MEG: MEG prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates changed. Supply - demand is turning to surplus [40]. - Polyester Products: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products like POY, FDY, etc. changed, and operating rates of different polyester segments also changed [40]. Polyolefins - Futures and Spot Prices: LLDPE and PP futures and spot prices changed on July 8th, and some spreads and basis values also changed [44]. - Supply and Demand Data: PE and PP operating rates, inventory data, and downstream operating rates changed. Both show supply contractions [44].