甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250709

Report on Methanol and Polyolefins 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - Methanol: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the United States, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but it is inclined to buy at low prices due to low valuation [1]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. The basis is +100, non - standard price difference is neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Export is performing well. Supply in June is expected to increase slightly. The 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure under the background of over - capacity, which can be alleviated if exports continue to grow or PDH devices have more maintenance [6]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 450. Downstream construction is seasonally weakening. The inventory reduction of the mid - upstream is slowing down. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export continuity in July - August. Static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and cost is stable [10]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From July 2 to July 8, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the prices of spot methanol in various regions generally decreased. The daily change on July 8 showed a decrease in most regional spot prices and a decrease in the西北折盘面 price by 20 [1]. - Views: High imports are being realized, inventory is accumulating, and it is in a bearish factor realization period. The macro - environment is unstable, and the price is undervalued, so it is inclined to buy at low prices [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From July 2 to July 8, 2025, the price of东北亚乙烯 decreased from 850 to 820 on July 7 and remained the same on July 8. The prices of some polyethylene products also showed certain changes, such as a decrease in华东LD price by 50 on July 8 [6]. - Views: The overall inventory is neutral, the basis is in a certain range, import profit is around - 400, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From July 2 to July 8, 2025, the price of山东丙烯 decreased from 6630 to 6400, and the prices of PP in various regions also changed slightly. The主力期货 price decreased by 12 on July 8 [6]. - Views: The upstream and mid - stream are destocking, the basis is +100, non - standard price difference is neutral, import profit is around - 500, and export is good. Supply in June is expected to increase slightly, and the 09 contract pressure is related to exports and PDH device maintenance [6]. PVC - Price Data: From July 2 to July 8, 2025, the price of西北电石 decreased from 2400 to 2250, while the prices of other related products remained relatively stable. The综合利润 remained at - 500 [9][10]. - Views: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, downstream construction is seasonally weakening, mid - upstream inventory reduction is slowing down, and attention should be paid to commissioning, export, coal price, etc. [10].