大越期货尿素早报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today. The international urea price is strong, but the domestic market still has a significant oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The recent urea futures market has been fluctuating. International supply is tight due to geopolitical factors, and the Indian tender price is expected to rise further, leading to a strong international urea price. Domestically, the operating rate has declined slightly but remains high, and inventory has fluctuated slightly. Industrial demand, including compound fertilizer and melamine production, has decreased, and agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The overall domestic urea market is in oversupply, and the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 87, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.7%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 118.6 million tons (+6.5), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and low domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international supply and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1850 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1870 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1850 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2583 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 09 contract is 1763 (+15), UR01 is 1723 (+11), and UR05 is 1727 (+11). The basis of the 09 contract is 87 (-15) [6]. | | Inventory | The UR comprehensive inventory is 118.6 million tons (+6.5), the UR factory inventory is 98.1 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 20.5 million tons. The number of warehouse receipts is 2607 (+1330) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown various trends. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, production was 3425, net imports were 360, and the apparent consumption was 3785. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906, with an 11.0% growth rate [10].