焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-9）-20250709

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal is expected to gradually return to a high level as coal mines resume production. The downstream procurement willingness remains strong, and the coal mine inventory is mostly at a medium - low level. The short - term price is expected to remain stable. Although the steel mill's profit has improved after the price adjustment of raw materials, the coking enterprises are limited by profit, and the transaction of some high - price resources is average [2]. - Coke: The profit of coking enterprises is meager, and the cost has increased due to the rising raw material prices. Some loss - making coking enterprises continue to limit production, leading to a tightening supply. With the rigid demand from downstream steel mills and the active purchasing of speculative traders, coking enterprises continue to reduce inventory. The short - term price is expected to remain stable [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The supply is expected to increase as coal mines resume production. The downstream procurement is active, and the market sentiment has improved. Some coal prices have been adjusted, and the overall market is stable [2]. - Base Difference: The spot price is 940, and the base difference is 96.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1775.5 tons, a decrease of 19.3 tons from last week, including 774 tons in steel mills, 312 tons in ports, and 669.5 tons in independent coking enterprises [2]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - Factors: Positive factors include the increase in molten iron production and limited supply growth; negative factors include the slowdown of raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Fundamentals: Coking enterprises' profits are thin, production costs have increased, and some enterprises are reducing production. The supply is tightening, while the downstream rigid demand exists, and the inventory of coking enterprises is decreasing [5]. - Base Difference: The spot price is 1350, and the base difference is - 74.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 933.2 tons, a decrease of 15.2 tons from last week, including 642.8 tons in steel mills, 203.1 tons in ports, and 87.3 tons in independent coking enterprises [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. - Factors: Positive factors include the increase in molten iron production and the rise in blast furnace operating rate; negative factors include the compression of steel mill profits and the partial overdraft of replenishment demand [8]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 312 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 tons, a decrease of 11.1 tons from last week [19]. - Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory: Coking coal inventory in independent coking enterprises is 669.5 tons, a decrease of 21.4 tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons from last week [22]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 774 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week [25]. Other Indicators - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74%, the same as last week [36]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].