大越期货油脂早报-20250709

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low, and demand is weak. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have a macro - level impact on the market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 162 tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 149 tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 183 tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8194, with a basis of 248, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 88 tons, an increase of 2 tons from the previous 86 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7700 - 8100 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8828, with a basis of 184, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 38 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from the previous value of 39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1 ton and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8450 - 8850 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9745, with a basis of 147, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 65 tons, an increase of 2 tons from the previous value of 63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].