大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation with a neutral fundamental outlook. The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,220 - 64,540 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,123 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - Demand: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate increased by 0.44% daily, with a profit of 46 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite increased by 0.87% daily, with a loss of 6,586 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt lake end is lower than that of the ore end, with a high profit margin [8]. - Basis: On July 8, 2025, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 980 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory was 138,347 tons, a 1.10% increase from the previous week and higher than the historical average [8]. - Disk: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price Changes: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.61%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.56% [14]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and import and export data of lithium carbonate from different sources (such as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lake) showed various changes. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09% [17]. - Demand - side Data: The data of demand - related aspects such as the monthly output, inventory, and export of lithium iron phosphate and other products also changed. For example, the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 18.24% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite showed different trends over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed [23]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with a supply - demand gap in most months [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Operating Rate: The weekly and monthly operating rates and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium云母, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends over time [29]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends over time [37]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Materials: The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the profit of lithium carbonate import, purification, and other aspects, showed different trends over time [43][46][49]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects showed different trends over time [51]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters showed different trends over time [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price and Production: The price, production, and inventory of lithium batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells, showed different trends over time [54][58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time [61]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [64]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, production, and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends over time [67]. - Export and Import: The export and import volume of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, production, and operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [71]. - Export and Inventory: The export volume and inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [74]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Penetration: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [79][80]. - Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers showed different trends over time [83].