大越期货PVC期货早报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the PVC market comprehensively, with a neutral overall view on the fundamentals. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4862 - 4926. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [5][9][12][13]. - Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In June 2025, PVC production was 1991340 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 344825 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 110390 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.73%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [7]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.88%, a month - on - month increase of 0.100 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 34.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 39.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.939 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 72.22%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 74.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 552 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 695 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 0.20% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2438.15 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 3.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Other Aspects - Basis: On July 8, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 44 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [9]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 386268 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 301658 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 84610 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04%. Social inventory was 373100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.11%. It is neutral [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish [9]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [9]. - Expectation: The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4862 - 4926 [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, price changes, and inventory changes of different types of PVC, as well as operating rates of downstream industries and profit and cost data of different production methods [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical basis trend of PVC futures, the market price of PVC in East China, and the closing price of the main contract [17][18]. 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - It shows the historical spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread) in 2024 and 2025 [23][24]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method of PVC production [26][29][31][34]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC from the calcium carbide method and ethylene method [39][40][43]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream industries (such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin). It also analyzes the relationship between PVC demand and real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment [45][46][54][55][58]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [59][60]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences in the ethylene method of PVC production [61][62]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, and presents the monthly supply - demand trend of PVC [64][65].