大越期货沥青期货早报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has increased recently, raising supply pressure, but it is expected to reduce next week. The overall demand recovery is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory continuously decreasing. Crude oil prices are rising, providing short - term cost support. The futures price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3558 - 3620 [8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In June 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 33.1376%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.10%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 597,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.33%. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.0382%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 26%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 452.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,113.1829 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.54%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil prices are rising, and short - term support is expected to strengthen [9]. - Inventory: On July 8, the social inventory was 1.318 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%; the factory inventory was 748,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.03%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.43%. Social inventory is continuously decreasing, factory inventory is continuously increasing, and port inventory is continuously decreasing [11]. - Expected: The futures price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3558 - 3620 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Base - spread: On July 8, the Shandong spot price was 3,825 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract base - spread was 236 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - Spread Analysis: Analyzed the price trends and spreads of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, including the price trends of asphalt and Brent oil, WTI oil, as well as the cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [27][30][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - Presented the price trends of asphalt in different regions, such as the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: Analyzed the profit trends of asphalt and the profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt [40][43]. - Supply - side Analysis: Included aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, and capacity utilization rate [46][51][61]. - Inventory Analysis: Analyzed the exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - ratio [66][70][73]. - Import - Export Analysis: Analyzed the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price - spread trends of South Korean asphalt [76][79][81]. - Demand - side Analysis: Covered aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [82][85][92]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provided the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt, including monthly production, import, export, and downstream demand [106].