大越期货贵金属早报-20250709

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Trump's statement about implementing a 50% copper tariff led to a decline in gold prices. The support for gold has significantly weakened, with the upward momentum clearly diminishing. There is a need to be vigilant about downward pressure. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 4 yuan/gram. Although there are fluctuations in tariffs, the impact on gold prices is limited, and the prices are oscillating [4]. - Silver: Trump's statement about the copper tariff caused silver prices to rise initially and then fall back. The premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 420 yuan/kg. Similar to gold, the upward momentum of silver prices has weakened, and there is a risk of downward pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures dropped 0.95% to $3311.00 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 2.38 basis points to 4.401%, and the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 97.49. The offshore RMB against the US dollar remained basically flat at 7.1806 [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 0.06% to $36.93 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 2.38 basis points to 4.401%, and the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 97.49. The offshore RMB against the US dollar remained basically flat at 7.1806 [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of gold futures increased by 102 kg to 21456 kg, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: The basis shows a neutral situation. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 4036 kg to 1334731 kg, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Economic data: At 07:50, Japan's June M3 money stock year - on - year; at 09:30, China's June CPI and PPI year - on - year; at 10:00, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision and monetary policy assessment report; at 22:00, the final value of the US May wholesale inventory month - on - month. - Speeches: At 18:45, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane will speak; at 19:00, European Central Bank Vice - President Luis de Guindos will speak. - Meetings: At 17:30, the Bank of England will release the minutes of its financial policy meeting. - Others: China's June credit data may be released today; OPEC will hold its 9th OPEC International Seminar from today to July 10 [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation is neutral. Trump's tariff statement and various market indicators such as stock indices, bond yields, and the US dollar index all have an impact on gold prices [4]. - Silver: The fundamental situation is neutral. Similar to gold, it is affected by Trump's tariff statement and various market indicators [6]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 3738 to 197020 on July 8 compared to July 7, a decrease of 1.86%. The short position increased by 94 to 63072, an increase of 0.15%. The net position decreased by 3832 to 133948, a decrease of 2.78% [30]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 4360 to 402152 on July 8 compared to July 7, an increase of 1.10%. The short position increased by 11823 to 333284, an increase of 3.68%. The net position decreased by 7463 to 68868, a decrease of 9.78% [33]. - ETF Positions: The SPDR gold ETF position decreased slightly. The silver ETF position increased and is higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - Warehouse Receipts: The COMEX gold warehouse receipt increased slightly and remains at a high level. The Shanghai gold warehouse receipt continued to increase. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipt turned to an increase and is higher than the same period last year, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipt decreased slightly [39][42].