Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The fundamentals of natural rubber are expected to weaken. Short positions above 14,000 should be held. Attention should be paid to the raw material supply in each production area and the changes in US tariffs [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex in Shanghai decreased by 0.36%, and the full - latex basis decreased by 216.67%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged. The price of cup - shaped rubber decreased by 0.63%, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The price of raw materials in Hainan increased by 1.59% [1]. - Inter - monthly Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 50.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.19% [1]. - Fundamental Data: In May, the production in Thailand increased by 157.52%, the production in Indonesia increased by 3.19%, the production in India increased by 5.07%, and the production in China increased significantly. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires decreased, the domestic tire production decreased slightly, the tire export volume increased by 7.72%, and the natural rubber import volume decreased by 13.35% [1]. - Inventory Changes: The bonded area inventory increased by 2.40%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 7.67%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The log market is expected to enter a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Prices: The 2509 log contract closed at 785.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.5 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major deliverable standards remained unchanged [3]. - Supply: The monthly port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 13.20%, and the number of departing ships decreased by 7.94% [3]. - Inventory: As of July 4, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.23 million cubic meters, a decrease of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3]. - Demand: The weekly demand increased by 0.12 million cubic meters. As of July 4, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.69 million cubic meters [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price is rising. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the long term, the oversupply situation may intensify [4]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained mostly unchanged, and the basis decreased [4]. - Inter - monthly Spreads: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 350.00%, the 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 20.00%, and the 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 66.67% [4]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 6.50%, the production in Xinjiang increased by 1.90%, the production in Yunnan increased by 146.26%, and the production in Sichuan increased by 73.22%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 13.75%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 5.10%. The export volume of industrial silicon in May decreased by 8.03% [4]. - Inventory Changes: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 13.19%, the social inventory increased by 1.85%, the non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3.98%, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.53% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The polysilicon futures price has risen, but the fundamentals remain weak. Although the policy expectation drives the price up, the downstream demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the terminal demand and absorption [5]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 8.33%, the average price of N - type granular silicon increased by 7.35%, and the basis of N - type materials increased by 219.42% [5]. - Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads: The PS2506 contract increased by 5.12%. Some inter - monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. - Fundamental Data: The weekly production of polysilicon increased by 1.69%, the monthly production in June increased by 5.10%. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed in May, and the silicon wafer production decreased in the week and increased slightly in June [5]. - Inventory Changes: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.74%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% [5]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The soda ash market is in an oversupply situation, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. The glass market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and observation is recommended [6]. Summary by Directory - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: The spot prices in North, East, Central, and South China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 glass contracts increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 8.11% [6]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: The spot prices in North, East, Central, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 soda ash contracts increased by 0.81%, and the 05 basis decreased by 8.77% [6]. - Supply: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.08%, the weekly production decreased by 1.07%, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 4.02% [6]. - Inventory: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.41%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 17.99% [6]. - Real Estate Data: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate changed, with the completion area and sales area showing improvement [6].
《特殊商品》日报-20250709
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-09 02:51