《有色》日报-20250709

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The short - term trading core drivers are the US copper tariff rate and its implementation time. If the 50% tariff rate is implemented at the end of July, the CL spread will be repaired by "COMEX copper price rising + LME copper price falling". If the implementation is delayed, LME copper price will be supported by arbitrage trading. The reference range for the main contract is 76,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2,850 - 3,150. It is recommended to short on rallies. For electrolytic aluminum, the current high - level price is expected to face pressure in the short - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the 20,800 resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [4]. Zinc - In the short - term, zinc price is weakening. Pay attention to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle [8]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to macro - policy guidance and short - term disturbances from the news [11]. Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large. Pay attention to changes in US tariffs, and continue to hold previous high - level short positions [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the rhythm of steel mill production cuts [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 60,000 - 65,000. Observe the performance of funds around 65,000 and pay attention to macro risks [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 79,795 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11% [1]. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.30% [1]. - In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.23% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - In June, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.22% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.49% [4]. - In June, the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.30% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 22,040 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 6.50% [8]. - In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 5.36% [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 121,100 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.74% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 10.04% [11]. - The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 10,325 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 116.90% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2,600 yuan/ton to 264,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97% [14]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 3,288 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 36.39% [14]. - SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.37% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.83% [16]. - The stainless - steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 12.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 350 yuan/ton to 62,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 6,010 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 8.34% [18]. - In June, the lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 145 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.15% [20].