Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, Trump's approval to send more defensive weapons to Ukraine and consideration of further sanctions on Russia raised geopolitical concerns and boosted oil prices. Meanwhile, the news of imposing tariffs on imported copper also caused market resonance and pushed prices up. However, the significant unexpected increase in API crude oil inventory in the early morning had a certain suppressing effect on oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, with short - term trading in the range of 510 - 520, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The US will impose tariffs of 25% - 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1st, and extend the "reciprocal tariff" suspension deadline to August 1st. Trump approved sending more defensive weapons to Ukraine and considered further sanctions on Russia, which is neutral for the market [3]. - Basis: On July 8th, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.77 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.4 per barrel, with a basis of 15.17 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4th increased by 7.128 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.6 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending June 28th increased by 3.845 million barrels, also exceeding the expected decrease of 1.809 million barrels. The Cushing region's inventory for the week ending June 28th decreased by 1.493 million barrels. As of July 8th, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 4.517 million barrels, a decrease of 440,000 barrels, which is bearish [3]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was below the moving average, which is neutral [3]. - Main Positions: As of July 1st, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts increased, while those of Brent crude oil main contracts decreased, which is neutral [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Geopolitical News: Trump approved sending more defensive weapons to Ukraine and considered further sanctions on Russia. He also said he was "very dissatisfied" with Russian President Putin. He is considering supporting a new bill in the Senate to impose severe sanctions on Russia. Additionally, Trump expanded the global trade war by announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatening to impose tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [5]. - Supply - side News: Saudi Arabia promoted OPEC+ to increase production rapidly. Eight major oil - producing countries decided to jointly increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August and accelerate the lifting of the 2.17 million barrels per day production cut plan that started in April. Combined with the UAE's additional production quota increase of 300,000 barrels per day, OPEC+'s production target for this year may be increased by 2.5 million barrels per day. However, the new quota may not significantly change the organization's total output as most member countries' actual production has reached or exceeded the quota levels [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - Bearish Factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; the continuous tension in the US trade relations with other economies; the cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - long term, the market awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $68.80 to $68.30, a decrease of 0.73%. The settlement price of WTI crude oil decreased from $67.00 to $62.36, a decrease of 6.93%. The settlement price of SC crude oil increased from 503.7 to 506.4, an increase of 0.54%. The settlement price of Oman crude oil increased from $68.70 to $69.78, an increase of 1.57% [7]. - Spot Market: The price of UK Brent Dtd decreased from $71.28 to $70.91, a decrease of 0.52%. The price of WTI decreased from $67.00 to $66.50, a decrease of 0.75%. The price of Oman crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region increased from $69.84 to $70.03, an increase of 0.27%. The price of Shengli crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region increased from $66.72 to $67.07, an increase of 0.52%. The price of Dubai crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region increased from $69.70 to $69.85, an increase of 0.22% [9]. - Inventory Data: The API inventory for the week ending July 4th increased by 7.128 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease. The EIA inventory for the week ending June 27th increased by 3.845 million barrels, also exceeding the expected decrease [3]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of July 1st, the net long positions of WTI crude oil funds were 234,693, an increase of 1,724 [15]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of July 1st, the net long positions of Brent crude oil funds were 166,717, a decrease of 25,881 [18].
大越期货原油早报-20250709
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-09 02:53