大越期货菜粕早报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2540 - 2600. It is affected by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, short - term peak demand, increased imports of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in the 2540 - 2600 range. The fundamentals show that it is affected by soybean meal trends and technical adjustments. Low oil - mill开机, low inventory support the market. Spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and the increase in imported rapeseed arrivals has no short - term pressure on oil - mill inventory. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited. The basis is at a discount, inventory has decreased significantly, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have decreased but funds have flowed in. In the short term, it is expected to return to the range - bound oscillation after a short - term rise and fall [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market while demand maintains a good outlook. - The slight decrease in Canada's rapeseed annual output supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing with uncertain results. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the decline in EU rapeseed production and Canada's lower - than - expected output. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory pressure is not large [12]. - Bearish: Domestic rapeseed was listed in June, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain. Rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Trading Data: From June 27 to July 8, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated around 2900, and the trading volume varied. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was mostly 2500, and the trading volume was relatively small. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually narrowed [14]. - Price Data: From June 30 to July 8, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (main 2509 and far - month 2601) and spot prices (in Fujian) fluctuated slightly. The spot price was mostly 2500, and the futures price was around 2500 - 2600 [16]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: From June 26 to July 8, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts generally showed a decreasing trend, with an increase on July 8 [17]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 - 2023 shows changes in harvest area, output, supply, demand, and inventory. The domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 - 2023 shows the situation of production, demand, and inventory [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific position data analysis content is provided. Only mentioned that the main long positions have decreased and funds have flowed in [9]. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly. - Oil - mill rapeseed inventory has rebounded from a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory remains low. - Oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume has decreased slightly. - Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [27][29][31][39].