摩根士丹利：亚洲经济-贸易紧张局势-战术性升级

Investment Rating - The report indicates a tactical escalation scenario regarding trade tensions, with potential tariff increases affecting corporate confidence and capital expenditure [2][4]. Core Insights - The US administration has extended the deadline for trade talks to August 1, after which tariffs may rise to levels similar to those on April 2, leading to a weighted average tariff increase for Asia to 27% [2][8]. - President Trump has suggested that a deal with India is close, while negotiations with Japan and Korea may face challenges, particularly concerning auto tariffs and agricultural products [3][4]. - The report highlights that trade tensions are resurfacing, which could lead to uncertainty impacting corporate confidence and the trade cycle [4]. Summary by Sections Tariff Rates Overview - Current weighted average tariffs for various countries in Asia are as follows: - China: 42% - India: 11% - Indonesia: 15% - Korea: 16% - Malaysia: 8% - Philippines: 10% - Singapore: 5% - Taiwan: 7% - Thailand: 11% - Australia: 9% - Japan: 17% - Vietnam: 18% - New headline reciprocal tariffs to be implemented on August 1 will adjust these rates, with the overall weighted average for Asia projected to be 27% [8].