广发期货《黑色》日报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The current off - season demand restricts the elasticity of steel spot, with demand being more likely to decline than increase. Although the decline in the apparent demand of five major steel products is not significant, the apparent demand of external profile materials has decreased. The previous supply contraction expectation affected the futures market, and the market sentiment improvement led to a price rebound. With the implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan from early to mid - July, the spot has short - term support. In the absence of supply - demand contradictions, steel prices will follow the trend of coking coal in the short term. The reference range for the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3150 - 3300, and for rebar is 3050 - 3150 [1][3]. Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased this week, and the arrival volume at ports will also decline. The iron - water production decreased due to steel mill overhauls and Tangshan's production restrictions. Although the billet export is strong, the terminal demand may weaken in the off - season. The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory increased slightly. In July, the iron - water production will continue to decline, with an average expected to be between 230 - 240 tons. The short - term iron ore will fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term view on the 09 contract remains bearish. It is recommended to buy the iron ore 2509 contract at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal futures showed an oscillating upward trend, and the spot was stable with a slight upward bias. The coking coal auction in the domestic market improved, and the number of rising coal types increased. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on June 23. After the end of the environmental protection inspection in late June, the supply is expected to increase. The demand may decrease due to potential environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan, and the iron - water production is expected to remain between 230 - 240 tons per day in July. For coke, it is recommended to conduct short - selling hedging on the coke 2601 contract, buy the coke 2509 contract at low prices after a pullback, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage. For coking coal, it is recommended to conduct short - selling hedging on the coking coal 2601 contract, buy the coking coal 2509 contract at low prices after a pullback, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 increased by 3, 2, and 3 respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East and South China were stable, while the price in North China decreased by 10. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05 and 01 increased by 5 and 4 respectively, and the 10 - contract remained unchanged [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price remained unchanged, while the slab price remained at 3730. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 4, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 3. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in East, North, and South China all decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - water production decreased by 1.5 to 240.8, a decline of 0.6%. The output of five major steel products increased by 4.2 to 885.2, an increase of 0.5%. The rebar output increased by 3.2 to 221.1, an increase of 1.5%, including an increase in electric - arc furnace output of 0.9 to 25.8 (3.4%) and an increase in converter output of 2.4 to 195.2 (1.2%). The hot - rolled coil output increased by 0.9 to 328.1, an increase of 0.3%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1 to 1339.9, a decline of 0.0%. The rebar inventory decreased by 3.8 to 545.2, a decline of 0.7%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.8 to 344.9, an increase of 1.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased slightly by 0.2%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 5.4 to 885.3, an increase of 0.6%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 5.0 to 224.9, an increase of 2.3%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.9 to 324.4, a decline of 0.6% [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties decreased, except for the increase in the warehouse - receipt cost of Jinbuba powder. The 09 - contract basis of most varieties decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.7%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6.1%. The spot prices of most iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly global shipment volume of iron ore decreased by 10.8%, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.1%. The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average port - clearing volume decreased by 2.0%. The monthly national iron and crude steel production increased by 2.1% and 0.6% respectively [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 0.8%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 1.7%. The coke 09 and 01 contracts increased slightly. The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt), coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt), and coking coal 09 and 01 contracts also showed an upward trend. The 09 and 01 basis of coke and coking coal changed, and the J09 - J01 and JM09 - JM01 spreads also changed [7]. Supply and Demand - The weekly coke production decreased slightly, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained stable. The iron - water production decreased by 0.6%. The weekly production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased. The demand for coke and coking coal may be affected by potential production restrictions in Tangshan [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, the inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 9.7%, the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the port inventory decreased by 4.5%. The coking coal inventory of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills increased, and the port inventory decreased [7].