大越期货甲醇早报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate this week. In the port area, there is a risk of inventory accumulation due to inflow of inland goods and concentrated imports, but there is also macro - level support. Inland, although upstream inventory is low and there are maintenance activities, downstream profitability is poor and trade sentiment is cautious, so prices are expected to move sideways [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - For methanol 2509, the fundamentals show a multi - empty game. The port may see inventory accumulation, while the inland has support from low upstream inventory and maintenance. The expected price trend is to fluctuate. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. As of June 26, 2025, port inventories have increased. The 20 - day line is upward with the price below it. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions [5]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: Some device stoppages (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), reduced methanol production in Iran and low port inventories, new production in acetic acid plants (e.g., Jingmen 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant), and external procurement by CTO plants in the northwest [6]. - Likely to be Bearish: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), expected concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde and a significant decline in MTBE start - up rates, profitability in coal - based methanol leading to active sales, and inventory accumulation in some factories in production areas due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Spot Price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2400 yuan/ton, with a basis of 27 for the 09 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures [5]. - Inventory: As of June 26, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 534,100 tons, an increase of 84,600 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 46,100 tons to 293,400 tons [5]. - Price and Spread: In the spot market, prices in different regions vary, with some showing declines. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased, and the number of registered warrants has increased while the number of effective forecasts has decreased. There are also changes in various price spreads [8]. - Production Profit: Coal - based methanol has a weekly profit decline of 14 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol has no change in profit, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol has a weekly profit increase of 342 yuan/ton [21]. - Operating Rate: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rate in the northwest is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from the previous week [8][22]. - External Price and Spread: The CFR price of methanol in China has decreased by 1.07% week - on - week, the CFR price in Southeast Asia has decreased by 2.84% week - on - week, and the price spread between China and Southeast Asia has changed [25]. - Import Spread: The spot price and import cost of methanol have both decreased, and the import spread has decreased by 42 yuan/ton week - on - week [27]. - Downstream Product Price and Profit: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have changed to different extents, and their production profits and operating rates have also changed [30][34][37][40]. - MTO Production Profit and Load: The production profit of MTO has increased by 218 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the load has increased by 0.15% [45]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Devices: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are under maintenance, with different maintenance times, starting and ending dates, and losses in different regions such as the northwest, north, east, southwest, and northeast [55]. - Foreign Devices: In Iran, some methanol plants are in the process of resuming production or operating at a low rate. In other countries, most plants are operating normally, but some are under maintenance or have low operating rates [56]. - Olefin Devices: Some olefin - related devices in the northwest, east, central, and other regions are under maintenance, operating stably, or have experienced temporary shutdowns and restarts [57].