LPG早报-20250709

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall PG market is in a weak and volatile state, with small changes in the basis (349), a slight strengthening of the 8 - 9 month spread (97), and the cheapest deliverable being East China civil gas at 4529. The import cost has dropped significantly, the FEI offshore premium has declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival premium has strengthened. The overseas market month spread has weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. The domestic - foreign price difference has strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Fundamentally, domestic port inventories, factory inventories, and external sales volumes are basically flat. PDH operating rates have dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct) with improved profits, and it is expected that PDH operating rates will increase slightly in the future. The alkylation operating rate remains flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. - Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose (4610). With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate. East China civil gas declined (4529), with an average overall trading atmosphere. Terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand. South China civil gas fluctuated downward (4660) mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1]. - Currently, prices have dropped to a relatively low level. Although chemical demand is high, high temperatures and weak terminal demand will suppress subsequent price increases [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - Price Changes: From July 2 - 8, 2025, South China LPG decreased from 4690 to 4630, East China LPG decreased from 4582 to 4494, and Shandong LPG remained at 4590 on July 8. Propane CFR South China had some fluctuations, and propane CIF Japan increased from 517 to 551. MB propane spot increased from 73 to 75, and CP forecast contract price increased from 556 to 561. The paper import profit showed a downward trend, and the main contract basis decreased by 16 on July 8 compared to the previous day [1]. - Spread Changes: The 08 - 09 spread of PG was 96 at one point and then the 8 - 9 spread strengthened slightly to 97. PG - CP reached 22.5 (+26.5), FEI - CP reached - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Industry Operation - PDH: The PDH operating rate dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct), and profits improved. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will increase slightly in the future [1]. - Alkylation: The alkylation operating rate remained flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. Regional Market Analysis - Shandong: Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose to 4610. With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate [1]. - East China: East China civil gas declined to 4529. The overall trading atmosphere was average, and terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand [1]. - South China: South China civil gas fluctuated downward to 4660 mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1].