Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ended support for solar and wind energy on July 4, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that a Gaza agreement might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on relevant Iraqi enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week. US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, while Cushing inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs as of July 4 declined rapidly, and the US fundamentals remained relatively tight. This week, global refinery profits rebounded, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, showing a market divergence. The absolute price is under downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily News - US President Trump stated on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and the date would not change. He might send a tax - levying letter to the EU in the next two days. At a cabinet meeting, Trump said he was still planning to impose tariffs on specific industries including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, with a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals [3]. - The arrival of crude oil at Shandong refineries continued to decline but remained higher than the same period last year. - Sources said that OPEC+ might approve another production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September at its August 3 meeting [3]. - The change in API crude oil inventories in the US for the week ending July 4 was 7.128 million barrels, the largest increase since the week of February 7, 2025 [3]. b. Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day to 2.305 million barrels per day [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 13.433 million barrels per day [4]. - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase [4]. - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.288 million barrels per day, a 1.12% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 239,000 barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.919 million barrels per day, an increase of 975,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased. Gasoline and diesel production from major refineries increased, while that from independent refineries decreased. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries improved month - on - month [4]. c. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ended support for solar and wind energy on July 4, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that a Gaza agreement might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on relevant Iraqi enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week. US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, while Cushing inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs as of July 4 declined rapidly, and the US fundamentals remained relatively tight. This week, global refinery profits rebounded, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, showing a market divergence. The absolute price is under downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5].
原油成品油早报-20250709
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-09 08:22