瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250709

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper are currently in a state where supply is boosted, but demand is still weak. However, due to the support of the macro - environment, the industry is expected to operate favorably. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,400 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,611.50 dollars/ton, down 179 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 193,999 lots, down 13,383 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are 9,545 lots, down 5,230 lots. The LME copper inventory is 102,500 tons, up 5,100 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper is 84,589 tons, up 3,039 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 37,100 tons, up 225 tons; the SHFE warrants of cathode copper are 21,336 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,190 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,255 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 28.50 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 790 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is 51.31 dollars/ton, down 28.49 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The copper smelter's TC is - 44.25 dollars/thousand tons, up 0.56 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 70,110 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 70,810 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 125.40 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,990 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,039.86 billion yuan, up 631.69 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 36,233.84 billion yuan, up 8,504.27 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235,000 thousand pieces, up 68,000 thousand pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.25%, up 1.31 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.33%, up 0.78 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 10.86%, down 0.0038 percentage points; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.49, up 0.0312 [2]. Industry News - From January to June, policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption continued to show effects. The year - on - year CPI changed from a decline to a 0.1% increase; the month - on - month decrease was 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices continued to rise, up 0.7%. The month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.4%, the same as last month; the year - on - year decrease was 3.6%, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points. Trump announced that tariffs would start on August 1st, with a 50% tariff on imported copper and up to 200% on drugs. He also mentioned possible tariffs on semiconductors. Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with the Director - General of the WTO and stated that China has the resources and means to hedge against external adverse effects. In June, the production and retail of passenger cars increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicles showing more significant growth. By 2035, about 32% of global semiconductor production may be affected by climate - change - related copper supply disruptions [2].