瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250709

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate still show a situation of excessive supply and weak demand for now, but industry expectations have improved, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve. The option market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 64,400 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 93,307 hands, down 23,240 hands; the position of the main contract is 326,895 hands, down 11,139 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 540 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 12,655 hands/ton, down 2,900 hands [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 61,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,100 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 696 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,340 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,716 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. Downstream and Application - The prices of some downstream products such as manganese - acid lithium are rising, while the prices of some others like cobalt - acid lithium remain unchanged. The production, sales, and export of new energy vehicles are increasing, and the cumulative sales penetration rate is also rising. The 20 - day and 40 - day average volatilities of the underlying are decreasing, and in the option market, the total subscription position and the total put position are increasing, and the put - call ratio of the total position is decreasing [2]. Option Situation - The total subscription position is 126,217 contracts, up 16,240; the total put position is 45,203 contracts, up 847; the put - call ratio of the total position is 35.81%, down 4.5184%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.23%, down 0.0016% [2]. Industry News - In June, the production and retail of passenger cars and new energy vehicles increased year - on - year. From January to June, the production and retail of passenger cars and new energy vehicles also increased year - on - year. In 2024, the national new energy vehicle ownership increased more than five - fold compared to the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan. From January to May 2025, the automobile production increased year - on - year, but the profit decreased. A super - large lithium deposit has been discovered in Linwu County, Hunan Province [2]. Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars have just appeared [2].