瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250709

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to fewer transport vehicles and low enthusiasm of traders for提货, some enterprises' inventories increased slightly this week. Methanol port inventories continued to accumulate this week. In the Jiangsu mainstream storage areas,提货 was average, and the low operating loads of some major downstream enterprises along the Yangtze River led to an increase in inventories in the East China region. There were no foreign vessels arriving at the South China ports, and the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas was stable, resulting in a continued decline in inventories. Next week, the volume of visible foreign vessel arrivals will change little, but the overall downstream demand will remain weak, and port methanol inventories are expected to accumulate slightly. In terms of demand, Zhongmei Mengda and Yanchang Zhongmei Phase II continued their maintenance status, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased last week, and the Sinopec Zhongyuan olefins plant is planned to stop production this week, so the operating rate may continue to decline. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2340 - 2390 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2372 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 711306 lots, an increase of 17008 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 95141 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8720, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1982.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan. The East - West price difference was 392.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 3 yuan, a decrease of 24 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 277 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 340 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 246 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.35 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.06 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 50.95 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons; at South China ports, it was 16.42 million tons, a decrease of 1.03 million tons. The methanol import profit was 13.89 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.07 yuan; the monthly import volume was 129.23 million tons, an increase of 50.46 million tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 352300 tons, an increase of 10700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 88.18%, a decrease of 3.13 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 46.07%, a decrease of 2.88 percentage points; of dimethyl ether, it was 5.19%, a decrease of 3.97 percentage points; of acetic acid, it was 93.42%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points; of MTBE, it was 65.06%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points; of olefins, it was 84.6%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 838 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 29.68%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.51%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for methanol was 15.52%, a decrease of 2.29 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of July 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.69 million tons, an increase of 0.46 million tons from the previous period, a 1.31% increase; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 22.12 million tons, a decrease of 2.00 million tons from the previous period, an 8.29% decrease. As of July 9, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 million tons, an increase of 4.52 million tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 million tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 million tons. As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.25%, a 2.09% decrease from the previous period [2] Suggested Attention - Wednesday's Longzhong enterprise inventory and port inventory data [2]