瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250709

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 in the short - term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 in the short - term [2] - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has shown a slight increase in stockpiling, with the bonded warehouse maintaining inventory reduction and the general trade inventory increase narrowing. Overseas goods arriving at the port for warehousing have decreased month - on - month, and the port's outbound rate has decreased month - on - month less than the inbound rate [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements, and some enterprises operated at reduced loads, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. This week, as enterprises gradually end maintenance and enter the production recovery stage, it will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,045 yuan/ton, with a change of 60; the 9 - 1 spread is - 875 yuan/ton, with a change of 20. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,095 yuan/ton, with a change of 25; the 8 - 9 spread is - 15 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 35. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 152,032 lots, a decrease of 835; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 28,278 lots, a decrease of 2,644 [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 20,439, a decrease of 15; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,400, a decrease of 187. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 188,760 tons, a decrease of 30; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 35,583 tons, an increase of 1,311 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,720 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,720 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,232 yuan/ton, an increase of 4; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 65.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 62 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.52. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 47.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.3 [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 152.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 6.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.8 [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 148,200 tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 222,300 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.75%, a decrease of 1.89; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.41%, a decrease of 7.64. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 40.45 days, a decrease of 1.48; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 46.48 days, a decrease of 1.67 [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.02%, a decrease of 0.07; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.68%, an increase of 0.05. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 23.45%, a decrease of 0.8; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 23.45%, a decrease of 0.8 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. North of the equator, it was mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and southern Thailand, and rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on tapping. South of the equator, it was mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly increasing the impact on tapping [2] - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.63 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.85 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.12 percentage points [2] - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% compared with May and an increase of about 29% compared with the same period last year. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]