Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,400 yuan/ton. Last week, influenced by the weak raw material market and continuous shipping pressure, domestic cis - butadiene rubber enterprise inventories decreased slightly. However, downstream shipping pressure remains high, and production enterprise and trading enterprise inventories are expected to increase slightly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, but this week, as enterprise maintenance ends, it will enter the production recovery phase, which will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,310 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 27,783 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 250 lots. The spread between August and September for synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 1,600 tons, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is $70.15 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.57; the price of WTI crude oil is $68.33 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.4. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $820 per ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is $586.5 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of $9.5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $1,060 per ton, with no week - on - week change. The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,800 tons, with no week - on - week change; the utilization rate of butadiene production capacity is 70.91%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.16 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 22,330 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,120 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 44.97%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber production capacity is 66.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.56 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 164 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 414 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 33,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons; the weekly enterprise inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 430 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.64 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 63.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The monthly production of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.45 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.48 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.67 days [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of July 3, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,200 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period (June 25, 2025), a week - on - week decrease of 2.56%. As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.85 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.96 percentage points. In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold approximately 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% from May and a year - on - year increase of approximately 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were approximately 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of approximately 6% [2].
合成橡胶产业日报-20250709
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-09 08:50