油脂油料产业日报-20250709

Report Core Views Palm Oil - Fundamental factors are supported by improved exports in Malaysia and policies in Indonesia, but high domestic inventories are suppressing price increases. Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 7 increased by 3.8% - 4.2% month - on - month, continuing the positive trend in June (up 4.5% month - on - month). Indonesian exports in June surged 48% year - on - year to 1.92 million tons. However, domestic palm oil inventories reached 2.479 million tons as of July 5, a weekly increase of 22,500 tons. Key variables include the sustainability of Malaysian exports and potential adjustments to Indonesia's export tariff policy [3]. Soybean Oil - There is a divergence between international and domestic fundamentals. International policy expectations and high domestic supply are in a tug - of - war. The US House of Representatives plans to review the "Clean Energy Expenditure Act" on July 12, which could increase the demand for soybean oil in the biodiesel industry by about 2 million tons per year if passed. But in China, the supply pressure is significant, with an expected arrival of 8.6 million tons of imported soybeans in July and a high crushing volume of 2.55 million tons. The key variables are the weather in North American soybean - growing regions and the progress of US policy implementation [4]. Rapeseed Oil - The fundamentals maintain a pattern of high inventories and low consumption, with limited policy support, and it is difficult to show improvement in the short term. The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China has remained above 630,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of over 82%. Key factors to watch are the progress of inventory reduction and the weather in North American rapeseed - growing regions [5]. Imported Soybeans and Domestic Meal - For imported soybeans, the supply in the third quarter is still relatively abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations. For domestic soybean meal, supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. Rapeseed meal inventory reduction is slow, and its market trend will generally follow that of soybean meal and is expected to be weak [17]. Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - The table shows the monthly and inter - variety spreads of oils, including P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc., with corresponding prices and daily changes [6]. - Palm oil futures and spot prices are presented, including prices of different contracts, BMD palm oil, and spot prices in Guangzhou, along with their changes [7]. - Soybean oil futures and spot prices are provided, including prices of different contracts, CBOT soybean oil, and spot prices in Shandong, along with their changes [13]. Meal Price and Spread - Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are given, including closing prices, daily changes, and price change percentages of different contracts [18]. - Information on the spot and futures spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is provided, including spreads between different contracts, spot prices, and basis prices [20].