贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250709

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry dated July 9, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Core View - Trump administration extended the tariff suspension period to August 1 but added tariffs on multiple countries. The gold - buying trend of global central banks remains unchanged, and China has increased its gold reserves for 8 consecutive months. Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the second half of the year [3] Data Summary - SHFE gold and silver futures and COMEX gold price charts are presented, showing price trends from 2024 - 2025 [4] - Graphs of the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and between gold and the US dollar index are provided [8][9] - Charts of gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventories are shown [12][13][14] Group 3: Copper Core View - Trump's new tariff policy may exacerbate US inflation risks and put pressure on copper prices. The market is adjusting its demand expectations, and the strengthening US dollar index suppresses the non - ferrous metals sector [15] Data Summary - Copper futures prices:沪铜主力 at 78400 yuan/ton, down 1.53%;伦铜3M at 9665 dollars/ton, down 1.22% [16] - Copper spot prices: Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper at 79190 yuan/ton, down 0.76% [20] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate TC, and scrap - refined copper price difference data are provided [24][27] - Copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data show changes [28][29] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports prices in the short term. However, long - term prospects are bearish. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, but short - term prices may be strong due to news and squeeze - out risks. Cast aluminum alloy is restricted by high costs and weak demand [31][32] Data Summary - Aluminum and alumina futures prices:沪铝主力 at 20515 yuan/ton, down 0.05%;氧化铝主力 at 3130 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [33][35] - Aluminum and alumina price differences and basis data are presented [39][44][46] - Aluminum and alumina inventory data show changes [53] Group 5: Zinc Core View - Zinc supply is gradually becoming looser, but inventory accumulation is slow and remains at a low level. Demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [60] Data Summary - Zinc futures prices:沪锌主力 at 22120 yuan/ton, up 0.32% [61] - Zinc spot prices: SMM 0 zinc average price at 22040 yuan/ton, down 1.03% [66] - Zinc inventory data show changes, with沪锌仓单 increasing and伦锌库存 decreasing [69] Group 6: Nickel Core View - Nickel ore prices are relatively stable, nickel iron prices are falling, stainless steel production cuts are less than expected, and anti - dumping taxes affect the market. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - to - order model. The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to macro trends [73] Data Summary - Nickel futures prices:沪镍主连 at 119140 yuan/ton, down 1% [74] - Nickel - related price and inventory data, including nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and stainless steel, are presented [80][82][89] Group 7: Tin Core View - Trump's new tariff policy may exacerbate US inflation risks. Tin's supply - demand fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on tin prices [91] Data Summary - Tin futures prices:沪锡主力 at 262890 yuan/ton, down 0.98% [92] - Tin spot prices and inventory data are provided [96][99] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The long - term supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand, and the over - supply pressure persists [105] Data Summary - Lithium carbonate futures prices:碳酸锂期货主力 at 64400 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan from the previous day [106] - Lithium spot prices, including lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium carbonate, show changes [111] - Lithium carbonate inventory data show changes [114] Group 9: Silicon Core View - There is significant capital interference in the silicon industry, and the core contradiction is "strong expectation, weak reality." The rise in polysilicon prices drives industrial silicon prices, but the market deviates from fundamentals [116] Data Summary - Industrial silicon spot prices:华东553 at 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged [117] - Industrial silicon futures prices:工业硅主力 at 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [119] - Polysilicon, silicon wafer, and other product prices and production, inventory data are presented [128][134][140]