《黑色》日报-20250709

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The steel market is currently affected by factors such as demand suppression in the off - season, previous supply contraction expectations, and short - term support from Tangshan's production restrictions. Steel prices are expected to follow the trend of coking coal in the short term. The reference range for the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3150 - 3300, and for the rebar is 3050 - 3150 [1][3]. Summary by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions remained stable, with some minor changes in the futures contracts. For example, the rebar 05 contract increased by 3 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of electric - furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu increased slightly, while the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions decreased to varying degrees. For instance, the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton [1]. - Production and Inventory: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.5 to 240.8 (a decline of 0.6%), while the output of the five major steel products increased by 4.2 to 885.2 (a rise of 0.5%). The inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly, with the rebar inventory dropping by 3.8 to 545.2 (a decline of 0.7%) and the hot - rolled coil inventory increasing by 3.8 to 344.9 (a rise of 1.1%) [1]. - Transaction and Demand: The daily average building materials trading volume decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.2%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 5.4 to 885.3 (a rise of 0.6%), and the rebar apparent demand increased by 5.0 to 224.9 (a rise of 2.3%), while the hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 1.9 to 324.4 (a decline of 0.6%) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The iron ore market shows a short - term oscillatory trend, and in the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract at low prices and adopt a 9 - 1 positive spread strategy [4]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: Most of the iron ore warehouse - receipt costs decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 6.6 to 725.3 (a decline of 0.9%). The basis of the 09 contract for most varieties decreased significantly, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged [4]. - Production and Inventory: The weekly global iron ore shipments decreased by 362.7 to 2994.9 (a decline of 10.8%), and the 45 - port arrivals decreased by 120.9 to 2363.0 (a decline of 5.1%). The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 71.1 to 8918.6 (a rise of 0.8%) [4]. - Demand: Affected by steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, the pig iron output decreased from 242.3 to 240.9 (a decline of 0.6%). In the future, the pig iron output is expected to continue to decline, with an average of 230 - 240 tons per day in July [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Both coke and coking coal futures showed an oscillatory upward trend, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. For coke, it is recommended to hedge the coke 2601 contract at high prices, go long on the coke 2509 contract at low prices after a pull - back, and adopt a 9 - 1 positive spread strategy. For coking coal, similar strategies are recommended [7]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: The prices of some coke varieties increased slightly, such as the Rizhao Port quasi - primary wet - quenched coke increasing by 20 to 1190 (a rise of 1.7%). The coking coal prices also showed some upward trends, with the Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipt price increasing by 0.6%. The basis and spreads of coke and coking coal showed different changes [7]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of coke and coking coal is expected to increase as some mines resume production after the end of environmental inspections. The demand is affected by potential environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, and the pig iron output is expected to remain at 230 - 240 tons per day in July. The inventory of coke and coking coal is at a medium level, with different trends in different sectors such as coking plants, steel mills, and ports [7]. - Profit: The coking and coking coal enterprise profits showed different trends. The steel - union coking profit decreased by 6, while the sample coal mine profit increased by 3 (a rise of 1.0%) [7].