甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250710

1. Core Views Methanol - High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. Wait for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. With Iran reducing production, non - Iranian supply increasing, and domestic supply rising, it is in a period of bearish factor realization. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation. Due to unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the unilateral direction. Given the low valuation, it's advisable to consider long positions at low prices [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis of contract 09 is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Overseas prices in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400, with no further increase expected. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production increased month - on - month in June as the number of maintenance decreased. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. New production capacity in 2025 will bring significant pressure, so focus on the commissioning of new plants [11]. Polypropylene - The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and prices in Europe and the US are stable. The PDH profit is around - 1000, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month in June. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the contract 09 is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to expand or more PDH plants undergo maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [11]. PVC - The basis of contract 09 remains at - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 450. Downstream start - up rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The de - stocking of mid - and upstream inventory has slowed down. Northwest plants are undergoing seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production level in Q1. Pay attention to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports from July to August. Recent export orders have declined slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC plant maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high caustic soda prices. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stabilizing, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Focus on exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [13]. 2. Data Summaries Methanol | Indicator | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Thermal Coal Futures | 801 | 801 | 801 | 801 | 801 | 0 | | Jiangsu Spot | 2470 | 2455 | 2437 | 2402 | 2385 | -17 | | South China Spot | 2468 | 2465 | 2448 | 2428 | 2415 | -13 | | Lunan Converted to Futures | 2500 | 2495 | 2485 | 2475 | 2450 | -25 | | Southwest Converted to Futures | 2550 | 2550 | 2550 | 2540 | 2540 | 0 | | Hebei Converted to Futures | 2445 | 2445 | 2445 | 2445 | 2445 | 0 | | Northwest Converted to Futures | 2610 | 2610 | 2585 | 2565 | 2563 | -2 | | CFR China | 280 | 277 | 277 | 277 | 277 | 0 | | CFR Southeast Asia | 345 | 340 | 340 | 340 | 340 | 0 | | Import Profit | 48 | 58 | 36 | 18 | 18 | 0 | | Main Contract Basis | 45 | 35 | 25 | 20 | 8 | -12 | | MTO Profit on Futures | -1268 | -1219 | -1219 | -1174 | -1138 | 36 | [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Indicator | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Northeast Asia Ethylene | 850 | 850 | 820 | 820 | 820 | 0 | | North China LL | 7200 | 7200 | 7175 | 7170 | 7180 | 10 | | East China LL | 7340 | 7350 | 7300 | 7300 | 7300 | 0 | | East China LD | 9500 | 9525 | 9500 | 9450 | 9450 | 0 | | East China HD | 8000 | 8000 | 8000 | 8000 | 7950 | -50 | | LL in US Dollars | 850 | 850 | 850 | 850 | 850 | 0 | | LL in US Gulf | 917 | 917 | 939 | 939 | 939 | 0 | | Import Profit | -115 | -100 | -161 | -161 | -161 | 0 | | Main Futures Contract | 7284 | 7282 | 7247 | 7245 | 7278 | 33 | | Basis | -80 | -90 | -60 | -70 | -90 | -20 | | Sinopec and PetroChina Inventory | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 0 | | Warehouse Receipts | 5631 | 5831 | 5831 | 5831 | 5831 | 0 | [11] Polypropylene | Indicator | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong Propylene | 6600 | 6550 | 6420 | 6400 | 6400 | 0 | | Northeast Asia Propylene | 745 | 745 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 0 | | East China PP | 7075 | 7070 | 7030 | 7025 | 7035 | 10 | | North China PP | 7125 | 7145 | 7115 | 7108 | 7093 | -15 | | Shandong Powder | 6980 | 6970 | 6920 | 6900 | 6870 | -30 | | East China Copolymer | 7352 | 7330 | 7320 | 7320 | 7320 | 0 | | PP in US Dollars | 890 | 900 | 890 | 890 | 890 | 0 | | PP in US Gulf | 1035 | 1035 | 1035 | 1035 | 1035 | 0 | | Export Profit | -4 | -7 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | | Main Futures Contract | 7074 | 7078 | 7057 | 7045 | 7078 | 33 | | Basis | 0 | -20 | -20 | -30 | -30 | 0 | | Sinopec and PetroChina Inventory | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 0 | | Warehouse Receipts | 7392 | 7292 | 7232 | 7351 | 7351 | 0 | [11] PVC | Indicator | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Northwest Calcium Carbide | 2350 | 2300 | 2250 | 2250 | 2250 | 0 | | Shandong Caustic Soda | 802 | 802 | 817 | 837 | 837 | 0 | | Calcium Carbide Method - East China | 4840 | 4850 | 4830 | 4830 | 4850 | 20 | | Ethylene Method - East China | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 0 | | Calcium Carbide Method - South China | 5450 | 5450 | 5450 | 5450 | 5450 | 0 | | Calcium Carbide Method - Northwest | 4450 | 4450 | 4450 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | Import Price in US Dollars (CFR China) | 700 | 700 | 700 | 700 | 700 | 0 | | Export Profit | 465 | 465 | 465 | 465 | 465 | 0 | | Northwest Comprehensive Profit | 356 | 356 | 356 | 356 | 356 | 0 | | North China Comprehensive Profit | -244 | -244 | -244 | -244 | -244 | 0 | | Basis (High - end Delivery Goods) | -80 | -80 | -80 | -80 | -80 | 0 | [12][13]