建信期货国债日报-20250710

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Views - In July, short - term treasury bond varieties may be more certain. Considering the current economic situation, with the marginal slowdown but still resilient support from export - grabbing, slow progress but no further escalation of conflicts in Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the US further delaying the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs with other countries, the market's risk - aversion sentiment and short - term policy demand are reduced. It is expected that the third quarter will be a policy observation period. The resurgence of monetary easing may occur in October after the domestic economic recovery situation is clear, the tariff negotiation results are clear, and the Fed cuts interest rates. However, short - term capital interest rates are only maintaining a loose state and cannot further decline, making it difficult to open up the downward space for long - term interest rates. Short - term varieties may be more resilient, and the 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may perform better, considering the expected loose policy of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: The impact of the year - on - year increase in CPI was limited. There was an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect. The A - share market weakened at the end of the session, and the bond market recovered and rose [8] - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities increased slightly. As of 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.643%, remaining unchanged [9] - Funding Market: The funding was loose, and there was a net withdrawal in the open market. There were 98.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities today, and the central bank conducted 75.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan. Short - term inter - bank funding interest rates rebounded slightly across the board. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.32%, the 7 - day interest rate rebounded 1.3bp to around 1.47%, and medium - and long - term funds remained loose. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated little around 1.6% [10] 4.2 Industry News - Tariff News: US President Trump announced on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and might send a tax letter to the EU in the next two days. He also planned to impose tariffs on specific industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, with a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. The US Commerce Secretary said that the copper tariff would be in place in late July or on August 1, and the investigation into the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors would be completed by the end of the month. Affected by this news, New York copper futures soared, with the increase reaching 17% at one point, reaching $5.89 per pound. Trump has issued tariff rate threats to 14 countries, with different tariff rates for each country, and these tariffs will take effect on August 1. Previously, the White House postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1 [13] - Diplomatic Response: Regarding Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on BRICS countries, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the BRICS mechanism is an important platform for cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries, advocating openness, inclusiveness, and win - win cooperation, and not engaging in camp confrontation or targeting any country. China has repeatedly stated its position on tariff increases, believing that trade wars and tariff wars have no winners, and protectionism has no future [14] - Hong Kong Policy: The "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong will take effect in August. The Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Xu Zhengyu, said that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is currently consulting the market on the implementation guidelines, which will be announced this month, covering anti - money laundering and other related requirements. The number of stablecoin licenses to be issued will be in single digits, and the goal is to issue licenses within this year [14] - Shipping Industry: The Shanghai International Shipping Research Center released the China Shipping Prosperity Report for the second quarter of 2025. In the second quarter of 2025, the China Shipping Prosperity Index was 120.81 points, up 14.77 points from the previous quarter, rising to the relatively prosperous range; the China Shipping Confidence Index was 123.22 points, up 12.89 points from the previous quarter, rising from the relatively prosperous range to the relatively prosperous range [14] 4.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on July 9, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] - Money Market: The report mentions the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase interest rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate [29][33] - Derivatives Market: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]