贵金属日评-20250710

Report Overview - Report Date: July 10, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Review - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Trump's new policies have increased geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty, boosting the safe - haven demand for gold. Although the dollar exchange rate and U.S. Treasury yields have risen, which is negative for precious metals in the short - term, the long - term and medium - term upward trend of gold remains intact. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][5]. Summary by Section 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful Act" into law, and the U.S. Treasury accelerated debt issuance, causing the dollar exchange rate and U.S. Treasury yields to rise, which was negative for precious metals. On the 9th Asian session, London gold fell to around $3285 per ounce. However, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on copper, drugs, and semiconductors and sell weapons to Ukraine to resist Russia also boosted the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again [4]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 776.87 | 775.87 | 765.83 | 767.30 | - 1.23% | 396,422 | - 2282 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,957 | 8,944 | 8,853 | 8,906 | - 0.57% | 881,108 | - 38229 | | Gold T + D | 771.51 | 771.00 | 761.46 | 763.50 | - 1.04% | 236,664 | 11684 | | Silver T + D | 8,923 | 8,907 | 8,815 | 8,856 | - 0.75% | 3,398,076 | 59188 | [5] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the strong rebound of global stock markets have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, the uncertainty of Trump's new policies, weak global economic growth, and high geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. The geopolitical risks in South Asia and the Middle East have provided short - term upward momentum for gold. In early June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and London silver soared from $33 to $36.9 per ounce in six working days. It is expected that the long - term bull market of gold will be supported by the safe - haven and reserve diversification demand brought by the restructuring of the international trade and currency system, and the medium - term bull market will be supported by economic weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations. However, the high price and price - to - earnings ratio of gold also mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising U.S. inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing in the third quarter [5]. 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors and drugs (up to 200% for drugs), with copper tariffs possibly implemented by the end of July or August 1 [17]. - Trump said the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff on imports from BRICS countries, which has drawn complaints from Brazilian President Lula. No specific implementation date was given [17]. - Trump approved the delivery of defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering additional sanctions against Moscow [17]. - The U.S. Treasury will increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and plans to increase the issuance of Treasury bills, focusing on short - term bonds. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that the U.S. has received about $100 billion in tariff revenue so far this year, which may increase to $300 billion by the end of 2025 [18].