大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. In July, there are few maintenance plans, and the Sanfangxiang PTA device is expected to be put into production, increasing the supply. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the polyester factory's inventory pressure is accumulating, with a downward expectation for polyester, which is negative for the PTA spot market [5]. - For MEG, the supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders to hold goods is poor. The supply - demand weakening and the polyester off - season put pressure on the MEG disk. The price will be mainly in the low - range consolidation in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The PTA futures rose slightly yesterday. The spot market negotiation was average, mainly by traders, with individual polyester factories making bids. The spot basis weakened rapidly and then stabilized. The expected supply increase and weak terminal demand are negative factors [5]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated narrowly. The spot basis was stable, and the external market was at a low level. The supply - demand structure is changing, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - PTA: Focus on the downstream polyester load fluctuation [5]. - MEG: Focus on the return efficiency of the supply side and the change of the cost side [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [5]. - MEG: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.20 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [6]. 3.5 Impact Factor Summary - Likely Factors: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [8]. - Negative Factors: Iran confirmed a cease - fire, and the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the rush - to - export period and the domestic demand off - season [9]. 3.6 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. There is still an inventory accumulation expectation at the raw material end. After the disk rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - PTA: The supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in PTA production capacity, output, import, export, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - MEG: The supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in MEG's total operating rate, output, import, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.8 Price and Profit Data - Price: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have changed on July 9, 2025, compared with July 8, 2025 [13]. - Profit: The processing fees and profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have also changed [13].