大越期货沪铜早报-20250710

Report's Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI remaining stable in June at 49.5%. The basis shows a premium for the spot over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is neutral with an increase in copper inventory on July 9 and an increase in SHFE copper inventory from last week. The price is above the 20 - day moving average with the average trending upwards, which is bullish. However, the main positions are net short and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish. The market is expected to be volatile due to factors such as the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, high - level inventory destocking, US trade tariff uncertainties, and geopolitical disturbances, including a 50% US copper tariff increase [2]. - The recent analysis of bullish and bearish factors involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Summary by Relevant Directory Daily View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral; the basis is bullish; the inventory is neutral; the price trend on the disk is bullish; the main positions are bearish; and the market is expected to be volatile [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish and bearish factors involve domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Spot - The report provides information on the location, mid - price, price change, inventory type, total quantity, and increase or decrease of copper spots, but specific data is not fully presented [6]. Exchange Inventory - On July 9, copper inventory increased by 4625 tons to 107125 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 3039 tons from last week to 84589 tons [2]. Bonded Area Inventory - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market is slightly in surplus in 2024 and in a tight balance in 2025. The report also provides a China annual supply - demand balance table for copper from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].