Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: July 10, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the market expected to fluctuate today. The main factors include OPEC's continuous production increase, the off - season of agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and the pressure of new capacity investment. However, there is also cost support, creating a situation of cost - demand game. [4][7] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. The downstream demand is weak, and there is still pressure from new capacity investment. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7250 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are bearish. [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 28, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.4%, considered neutral. [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (+54,000 tons), which is bearish. [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, considered neutral. [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish. [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. Considering OPEC's production increase, the off - season of agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and new capacity investment pressure, the PE market is expected to fluctuate today. [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support is a bullish factor, while new capacity investment and weak demand are bearish factors. The main logic is the game between cost and demand and tariff policies. [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic indicators show a mixed situation. The downstream demand is in the off - season, with weak demand in pipes, plastic weaving, etc. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7200 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are bearish. [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 122, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, considered bullish. [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 581,000 tons (+11,000 tons), considered neutral. [7] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, considered neutral. [7] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. Given OPEC's production increase, weak downstream demand, and new capacity investment pressure, the PP market is expected to fluctuate today. [7] - Likely Factors: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak demand and new capacity investment are bearish factors. The main logic is the game between cost and demand and tariff policies. [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene showed an overall upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5%. [15] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0%. [17]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250710
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-10 02:34