大越期货豆粕早报-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For Soybean Meal: The US soybean market is experiencing a decline due to favorable growing weather and high expectations of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, soybean meal prices initially dropped and then rebounded, influenced by the US soybean market and technical adjustments. With an increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices, the market is expected to enter a range - bound pattern. The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960 [8]. - For Soybeans: The US soybean market is in a downward trend due to good growing conditions and high - yield expectations. In the domestic market, soybeans are trading in a narrow range, affected by the increase in imported soybeans and the expectation of a new - season domestic soybean harvest. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4040 and 4140 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the good planting weather in the US has led to a relatively strong performance in the US soybean market, which is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on soybean planting and growth conditions, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories and oil - mill soybean meal inventories have rebounded from low levels. Recently, the soybean and soybean meal markets have declined due to the fall in the US soybean market. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports post - holiday price expectations. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal has entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern. - Low oil - mill soybean meal inventories support short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war mean that soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, awaiting further clarity on South American soybean yields and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Soybean Meal Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventories, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather [13]. - Soybean Meal Bearish Factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the continued expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. - Soybean Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - Soybean Bearish Factors: The continued expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production, suppress price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: Spot price in East China is 2780, with a basis of - 167, indicating a discount to futures. Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 82.24 million tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 89, indicating a premium to futures. Oil - mill soybean inventory is 636.4 million tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. - Trading Data: From June 30 to July 9, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed certain fluctuations, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed [15]. - Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - Sowing and Harvesting Progress: Include the sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in 2023 - 2025 [33][34][38] 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main long positions have decreased, but capital has flowed in [8]. - Soybeans: The main short positions have increased, and capital has flowed out [10].