大越期货甲醇早报-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market shows a mixed picture with both bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, port methanol is expected to fluctuate due to the potential inventory build - up and macro - level support. Inland methanol is likely to move sideways due to balanced supply and demand and profit - related issues in the downstream. Overall, the methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2509 trading in the range of 2340 - 2410 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Port methanol may face inventory build - up risk with incoming imports, but there is macro - level support. Inland methanol has supply support from plant maintenance, but downstream profitability issues and high user inventories limit price increases. The market is expected to be neutral, and factors like port inventory, olefin procurement, and macro news need continuous monitoring [4]. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2400 yuan/ton, and the basis for the 09 contract is 28, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: As of June 26, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 53.41 tons, a cumulative increase of 8.46 tons from the previous period. The available circulating supply in coastal areas increased by 4.61 tons to 29.34 tons, which is a bullish factor [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the price is below the moving average, showing a neutral trend [4]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2509 trading between 2340 - 2410 [4]. 3.2 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: Some domestic plants are shut down; Iranian methanol production has decreased; port inventory is at a low level; new acetic acid plants are in operation or planned; and some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol [6]. - Bearish Factors: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production; there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde market is in the off - season; MTBE production has declined; coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively sold; and some factories in production areas have inventory build - up due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Spot and Futures Prices: Various domestic spot prices of methanol have different trends, with some decreasing. The futures closing price also decreased slightly. The basis has decreased. The opening rates in different regions have generally declined, and the inventory in East and South China ports has decreased [8][9][11]. - Profit Margins: Coal - based methanol has a certain profit, while natural gas - based methanol has a loss, and coke - oven gas - based methanol has a relatively high profit. The profit margins of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have different degrees of decline [21][30][34]. - External Market Prices: CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia prices have decreased, and the price difference has changed slightly [25]. - Import Profit Margins: The import cost has decreased slightly, and the import profit margin has decreased [27]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions are under maintenance, including those in the northwest, north, east, southwest, and northeast. The maintenance periods and reasons vary, such as planned maintenance, equipment failures, and limited gas supply [54]. - Foreign Plants: Iranian plants are in the process of resuming production, while some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally, and some are under maintenance [55].