大越期货生猪期货早报-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork may also decline due to the end of the holiday and a pessimistic macro - environment. However, the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is expected to experience a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, with pig prices returning to a volatile pattern. The target price range for LH2509 is between 14,000 and 14,400 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No content provided for a detailed summary. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig market enters a slack season, with reduced large - pig slaughter and a double - reduction in supply and demand. Spot prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and the futures market will follow a similar pattern [10]. - Pork demand weakens after the May Day holiday. The spot price of pigs is affected by the double - reduction in supply and demand, with limited downward space due to reduced slaughter [10]. - The profit of pig farming remains low, but there is still short - term profit. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter is fair in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The spot price of pigs may be volatile and weak after the May Day holiday, and the futures market will generally maintain a volatile and weak pattern. When the market stabilizes depends on future supply reduction and demand recovery [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: Domestic pig inventory has declined year - on - year, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [11]. - Bearish: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the consumption of pork enters a slack season after the May Day holiday [11]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - side Indicators: - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 41731 million heads, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease and a 2.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 4066 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a 0.6% year - on - year increase [8]. - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 40850 million heads, a 5.9% month - on - month decrease and a 5.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 3996 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year decrease [26]. - Demand - side Indicators: - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork weakens, and the consumption of fresh pork is suppressed. The tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence [8]. - The annual consumption of pork shows a month - on - month increase, indicating a recovery in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [60]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing [8].