大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being a prominent issue. The overall market is affected by factors such as production costs, inventory levels, and downstream demand [8]. - The production cost of lithium carbonate varies by source. Ore - based production (lithium spodumene and lithium mica) is currently at a loss, while the cost of the salt - lake end is relatively low, with sufficient production motivation [8]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is higher than the historical average, which has a negative impact on the market [8]. - The downward trend of the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change due to the mismatch between production capacity and demand [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,123 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - Demand: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, with the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increasing by 3.75% and that of ternary material sample enterprises increasing by 3.59% [8]. - Cost: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, with daily - on - daily increases of 0.84% and 1.03% respectively, and production at a loss. The cost of the salt - lake end is lower, with a high profit margin [8]. - Basis: On July 9, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1,100 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.10% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. Different types of inventory (smelter, downstream, and other) showed different trends [8]. - Market: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a positive signal. The net short position of the main contract increased, showing a negative signal [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and upstream and downstream products showed different trends. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.22%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.64% [13]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly production rate decreased by 1.59%, and the monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, an 8.34% increase from the previous month. The production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) also showed different trends [16]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly production rate and output of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 5.55%, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased [16]. 3.3 Supply - Related Sections - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium ore showed an upward trend, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore fluctuated. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased slightly, and the inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore showed different trends over time [22][23]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly production rate and output of lithium carbonate showed different trends. The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the import volume decreased. The supply - demand balance showed different states in different months [28][34]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The capacity utilization rate and production of lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The export volume of lithium hydroxide was relatively large, and the supply - demand balance also changed over time [36][40]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Related Sections - The production cost and profit of lithium compounds (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide) from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycling) showed different trends. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from externally purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica was at a loss [43][46]. - The import profit, purification profit, and carbonization profit of lithium carbonate also showed different trends over time [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - Related Sections - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was higher than the historical average, and the inventory of different sources and types also changed [50][51]. 3.6 Demand - Related Sections - Lithium Battery: The price, production, and inventory of lithium batteries showed different trends. The monthly output and loading volume of power batteries increased, and the export volume of lithium batteries also changed [54][55]. - Ternary Precursor: The price, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also changed in different months [60][64]. - Ternary Material: The price, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost - profit of ternary materials also changed over time [66][67]. - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium: The price, production, and export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium showed different trends. The cost - profit of phosphoric acid iron lithium also changed [71][74]. - New Energy Vehicles: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [78][79].