大越期货沥青期货早报-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Fundamental analysis shows a short - term bearish outlook for asphalt due to high supply pressure and weak demand recovery. However, high - level crude oil prices provide some support. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3592 - 3654 [8][10][15] - Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs, which provide some support. Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and increasing expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In June 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 33.1376%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure, but supply pressure may decrease next week [8] - Demand Side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.0382%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 26%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; and the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8] - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 452.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1113.1829 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.54%. The loss of asphalt processing decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [9] - Expectation: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3592 - 3654 [10] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview, including data on various contracts such as 01 - 12 contracts, covering indicators such as futures closing prices, price changes, basis, weekly production, and weekly operating rates [18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices [21] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - 主力合约价差: It presents the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is helpful for analyzing the price differences between different contracts [25] - 沥青原油价格走势: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [27] - 原油裂解价差: It presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [30][31] - 沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the relative price relationships among these products [35] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [37] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - 沥青利润: It presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025, showing the profitability of asphalt production [40] - 焦化沥青利润价差走势: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the profit differences between different refining processes [44] - Supply Side: - 出货量: It shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt shipments from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the sales situation of asphalt [46] - 稀释沥青港口库存: It presents the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 to 2025, which is related to the supply of raw materials [48] - 产量: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the overall supply capacity of asphalt [51] - 马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势: It presents the historical trends of the price of Marruán crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil, which is related to the supply of raw materials for asphalt production [56] - 地炼沥青产量: It shows the historical trend of asphalt production from local refineries from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production capacity of local refineries [58] - 开工率: It presents the historical trend of weekly asphalt operating rates from 2021 to 2025, reflecting the production activity of asphalt [61] - 检修损失量预估: It shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 to 2025, which is related to the supply reduction caused by refinery maintenance [63] - Inventory: - 交易所仓单: It presents the historical trend of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the inventory situation in the futures market [66] - 社会库存和厂内库存: It shows the historical trends of social and factory - level asphalt inventories from 2022 to 2025, reflecting the overall inventory situation [70] - 厂内库存存货比: It presents the historical trend of the inventory - to - stock ratio in factories from 2018 to 2025, which is related to the inventory management of factories [73] - 进出口情况: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [76][79] - Demand Side: - 石油焦产量: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in the related industries [82] - 表观消费量: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the overall market demand [85] - 下游需求: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, as well as the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers, reflecting the demand for asphalt in the downstream construction industry [88][92][94] - 沥青开工率: - 重交沥青开工率: It presents the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [97] - 按用途分沥青开工率: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production activities of different types of asphalt [99] - 下游开工情况: It presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the demand for asphalt in the downstream industries [101][103] - 供需平衡表: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to July 2025, including data on production, imports, exports, social inventories, and factory inventories, which is helpful for analyzing the overall supply - demand situation of the asphalt market [106]