工业硅期货早报-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery has shown signs, and cost support has risen. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8025 - 8255 for the 2509 contract [6]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the supply side production schedule continues to increase, while demand in the silicon wafer, battery cell, and component sectors continues to decline. Cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 38685 - 39855 for the 2508 contract [8]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polycrystalline silicon market [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 74,000 tons, a 10.84% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 69,000 tons, a 15.85% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains weak [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3475 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 9th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 1.85% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory was 200,100 tons, a 10.34% decrease; and major port inventory was 126,000 tons, a 1.56% decrease [6]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions have increased [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply: Last week's output was 24,000 tons, a 1.69% increase from the previous week. The predicted production schedule for July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 11.9 GW, a 11.45% decrease from the previous week; inventory was 192,200 tons, a 4.42% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for July is 52.2 GW, a 11.28% decrease from the previous month. Battery cell and component production also show a downward trend [8]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon is 34,780 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 5220 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On July 9th, the price of N - type polycrystalline silicon was 40,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 08 contract was 730 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 272,000 tons, a 0.74% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 08 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions have increased [8]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts have declined, with the 07 contract having the largest decline of 2.22%. Spot prices of various types of silicon in East China remained unchanged [15]. - Social inventory increased by 1.85% week - on - week, while sample enterprise inventory decreased by 10.35% week - on - week, and major port inventory decreased by 1.56% week - on - week [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - The prices of some silicon wafers and polycrystalline silicon futures contracts have increased. Silicon wafer inventory has decreased, while battery cell inventory has increased. Component production shows a downward trend, but exports have increased [17]. 3. Other Aspects (Price, Inventory, Production, etc.) - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trend: Displays the historical trends of the basis of the main industrial silicon contract and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon [19]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [22]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trend: Presents the historical trends of industrial silicon production and capacity utilization in sample enterprises [24]. - Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trend: Displays the historical trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in major production areas [29]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trend: Shows the historical trends of production costs and profits of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [31]. - Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Reflects the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon, including production, imports, exports, consumption, etc. [33][36]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: Covers aspects such as DMC price, production, downstream product prices, imports and exports, and inventory [39][41][44]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: Includes price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) aspects [47][50][52]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polycrystalline Silicon: Involves fundamentals, supply - demand balance, silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component, photovoltaic accessory, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation aspects [57][60][63][66][69][72][75][77].