建信期货镍日报-20250710

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report - Date: July 10, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Trump's announcement of tariff implementation on August 1st has increased macro uncertainty, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. The weakening macro support has caused nickel prices to fall under the pressure of fundamental oversupply. The Shanghai nickel main contract fell below 120,000 yuan on the 9th, with a closing decline of 1.2%. The total index positions increased by 10,628 to 158,316 lots. Given the current weak performance of each link in the nickel industry chain, previous long positions should be closed, and a rolling operation strategy should be continued [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation: Macro uncertainty has increased, causing a decline in market risk appetite. The weakening macro support has led to a continuous decline in nickel prices under the pressure of fundamental oversupply. On the 9th, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell below 120,000 yuan, with a closing decline of 1.2%, and the total index positions increased by 10,628 to 158,316 lots [8]. - Spot Market: During the off - season of demand, the spot trading of refined nickel is average. Enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the spot supply is sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,100 yuan/ton, and the premium range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply Side: The decline in mine - end interference has weakened the support. The premium of Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore has declined, and there is a risk of subsequent ore price decline. The price of high - nickel ferro continues to fall, with an average price of 905 yuan/nickel point on the 9th. Nickel iron plants are facing increasing losses, and some have cut production [8]. - Demand Side: The demand for new energy batteries is in the off - season, and the support for nickel sulfate is limited. Although nickel sulfate has rebounded slightly to 27,420, some enterprises have cut production to support prices due to losses [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Given the current weak performance of each link in the nickel industry chain, previous long positions should be closed, and a rolling operation strategy should be continued [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Bulgaria: Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This project is a step towards the country's goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [9]. - Turkey: A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag). The silver consumption is less than 0.5 mg/W, far lower than that of traditional silver - contact cells, while achieving almost the same efficiency. This innovation is expected to significantly reduce production costs [11]. - UK: Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, with the total approved storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [11].