广发期货《黑色》日报-20250710

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The demand in the off - season shows resilience and does not decline significantly as expected. The supply - demand in June is basically balanced with a flat inventory trend. Currently, the supply contraction expectation affects the market, and the improved market sentiment leads to price rebounds. In early and mid - July, Tangshan implements production restrictions, providing short - term support for the spot market. The reference fluctuation range for the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3150 - 3300, and for the rebar, it is 3050 - 3150 [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. This week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports also declined. On the demand side, due to increased steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, the molten iron output decreased. The molten iron is expected to continue to decline in July, with an average of 230 - 240 tons. In the short term, iron ore will oscillate strongly, while in the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. It is recommended to go long on iron ore 2509 at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade with a reference range of 700 - 750 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - As of yesterday's close, both coke and coking coal futures showed an oscillating upward trend, and the spot markets were stable with a slight upward bias. For coke, the fourth round of price cuts landed on June 23, and a phased bottom is emerging. On the supply side, after the end of environmental inspections in June, some coal mines are expected to resume production. On the demand side, there are rumors of environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, and the molten iron output is expected to decline. For coking coal, the domestic coking coal auction market is warming up, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand from coking plants has slightly declined, but the downstream replenishment efforts have increased. It is recommended to hedge coke 2601 and coking coal 2601 at high prices, go long on coke 2509 and coking coal 2509 at low prices after corrections, and conduct 9 - 1 calendar spread trades [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3150, 3160, and 3210 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3098, 3063, and 3087 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3230, 3140, and 3210 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3206, 3190, and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, and the billet price is 2910 yuan/ton. The profits of East China hot - rolled coils, Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar, Jiangsu converter rebar, etc., show different degrees of decline [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output is 240.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (- 0.6%). The output of five major steel products is 885.2 tons, an increase of 4.2 tons (0.5%). Rebar output is 217.8 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons (1.5%), and hot - rolled coil output is 328.1 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons (0.3%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1339.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (0.0%). Rebar inventory is 545.2 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons (- 0.7%), and hot - rolled coil inventory is 341.2 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons (- 1.1%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume is 240.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (- 0.6%). The apparent demand for five major steel products is 885.2 tons, an increase of 5.4 tons (0.6%), the apparent demand for rebar is 219.9 tons, an increase of 5.0 tons (2.3%), and for hot - rolled coils, it is 326.3 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons (- 0.6%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders show an increase of 0.3%. The 09 - contract basis of some powders shows a significant decline. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 2.3%), the 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.5 (1.9%), and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 (2.9%) [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2483.9 tons, an increase of 120.9 tons (5.1%). The global shipment volume (weekly) is 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 362.7 tons (- 10.8%). The national monthly import volume is 9813.1 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons (- 4.9%) [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 240.9 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons (- 0.6%). The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume (weekly) is 319.3 tons, a decrease of 6.6 tons (- 2.0%). The national monthly pig iron output is 7411.4 tons, an increase of 153.1 tons (2.1%), and the national monthly crude steel output is 8654.5 tons, an increase of 52.6 tons (0.6%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 13822.73 tons, a decrease of 55.7 tons (- 0.4%). The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8918.6 tons, an increase of 71.1 tons (0.8%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices showed an oscillating upward trend, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward bias. The fourth round of coke price cuts landed on June 23. Coking coal futures also rose, and the spot market showed a bottom - building and rebound trend [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 64.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons (- 0.24%). The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.5 tons, an increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%). The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 865.3 tons, an increase of 12.4 tons (1.5%), and the clean coal output is 442.3 tons, an increase of 7.4 tons (1.7%) [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 240.9 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons (- 0.6%). The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 64.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons (- 0.2%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.5 tons, an increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%) [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory is 930.7 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons (- 1.1%). The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 789.6 tons, an increase of 8.4 tons (1.1%) [5].