芳烃橡胶早报-20250710

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For PTA, it has entered the inventory accumulation stage. The slope of inventory accumulation depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. The short - term processing fee has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the subsequent load reduction of filament [2]. - For MEG, it is gradually entering the inventory accumulation stage. Considering the low actual inventory and relatively high valuation, it is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the supply has not significantly decreased due to acceptable profitability and inventory pressure. However, due to weak domestic demand, the upside potential of valuation is limited, and attention should be paid to whether there will be further production cuts in the industry [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are stable national visible inventory without seasonal depletion and the rebound of Thai cup - lump rubber price affected by rainfall. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From July 3 to July 9, crude oil price remained unchanged at 70.2, naphtha increased by 11 to 598, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 3 to 850, PTA inner - market spot decreased by 50 to 4750, and polyester yarn POY 150D/48F decreased by 60 to 6700. The naphtha cracking spread increased by 11.46 to 83.76, PX processing margin decreased by 8 to 252, PTA processing margin decreased by 68 to 107, and polyester gross profit decreased by 17 to 33 [2]. - Device Changes: Hainan Yisheng's 2 million - ton device increased its load [2]. - Market Situation: Near - end TA operation rate was stable, polyester operation rate declined faster, inventory slightly accumulated, the basis weakened significantly, and spot processing fee decreased [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From July 3 to July 9, Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 820, MEG outer - market price remained at 509, MEG inner - market price increased by 2 to 4347, and MEG coal - based profit increased by 2 to 583 [2]. - Device Changes: Hainan Yisheng's 2 million - ton device increased its load [2]. - Market Situation: Near - end domestic coal - based plants had maintenance, the operation rate decreased slightly. Saudi plants had some accidents, port inventory decreased at the beginning of next week but was expected to accumulate again during the week. The basis was stable, and the profit - to - price ratio was maintained [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Profit Changes: From July 3 to July 9, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 5 to 6730, and short - fiber profit increased by 38 to 196 [2]. - Device Changes: No device maintenance information was provided [2]. - Market Situation: Near - end Jiangyin Huaxi reduced production, the operation rate dropped to 93.0%. Sales were stable compared to the previous period, and inventory slightly accumulated. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn decreased, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory continued to accumulate [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Price Changes: From July 3 to July 9, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber remained at 1705, the price of RMB mixed rubber increased by 20 to 13860, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 60 to 13645 [2]. - Market Situation: The national visible inventory was stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [2]. Styrene - Price Changes: From July 3 to July 9, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 820, pure benzene (CFR China) remained at 731, and styrene (CFR China) increased by 5 to 910 [5]. - Profit Changes: Styrene domestic profit remained at 170, EPS domestic profit decreased by 80 to 60, and PS domestic profit decreased by 80 to - 314 [5].