广发早知道：汇总版-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is testing key positions with some resistance, and the four major stock index futures contracts have declined. Consider a bull spread strategy for index futures [2][3][4]. - Treasury bond futures are likely to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term, and it is recommended to allocate more on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate [5][7]. - Gold has a long - term upward trend, but short - term fluctuations are affected by trade agreements and inflation data. Silver is supported by industrial demand [10][11]. - The container shipping futures market is expected to have a small increase in August if quotes do not fall, and a cautious and bullish attitude towards the 08 contract is recommended [12][13]. - For various metals, such as copper, zinc, and tin, prices are affected by factors like supply - demand, tariffs, and inventory, with different short - term trends and operation suggestions [15][24][27]. - In the black metal sector, steel prices are in a volatile state during the off - season, and iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term [43][47]. - For agricultural products,粕类 markets are bottom - grinding, the pig market has potential supply pressure, and corn prices are in a narrow - range oscillation [55][58][60]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Thursday, major indices first rose in the morning and then fluctuated down in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.13%, and most stock index futures contracts declined. The base spreads of the four major stock index futures contracts were repaired [2][3]. - News: The CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The US delegation is expected to meet with Chinese officials in August to discuss trade issues [3][4]. - Funding: On July 9, the A - share trading volume increased, and the central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Consider a bull spread strategy for index futures as the index has broken through the short - term shock range, but be cautious when testing key positions [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Most treasury bond futures closed up, and the yields of most major interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market moved up [5]. - Funding: The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 9, with a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively abundant [5][6]. - Fundamentals: The CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The CPI increase was mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices [6]. - Operation Suggestion: Consider allocating more on dips for treasury bond futures and pay attention to the capital interest rate. The T2509 may fluctuate between 108.8 - 109.2 [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market News: Trump announced tariffs on multiple countries, and the EU - US trade dispute focuses on tariffs in specific industries. The Fed's internal officials have differences in decision - making due to the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation [8][9]. - Market Performance: Gold prices showed a V - shaped reversal after a decline, closing up 0.37%. Silver prices were dragged down by copper prices, closing down 0.99% [10]. - Outlook: Gold has a long - term upward trend, and short - term fluctuations are affected by trade agreements and inflation data. Silver is supported by industrial demand [10][11]. Container Shipping Futures - Spot Quotes: As of July 10, the quotes of major shipping companies were provided [12]. - Indices: As of July 7, the SCFIS European line index rose 2.3% month - on - month, and the US West line index fell 1.4% month - on - month [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased by 8.1% year - on - year as of July 8. The PMI data of the Eurozone and the US in June were also provided [12]. - Logic and Suggestion: The futures market rose on the previous day. If quotes do not fall, there may be a small increase in August. A cautious and bullish attitude towards the 08 contract is recommended [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of July 9, copper prices and premiums decreased. Downstream demand was weak, and the supply was not tight [15]. - Macro: Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the new tariff may take effect at the end of July [15]. - Supply: The supply of copper concentrate is restricted, and the production of electrolytic copper in June decreased slightly but is expected to increase in July [16]. - Demand: Short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand has overdrawn Q3 demand [17]. - Inventory: Global visible inventories, LME inventories, and Chinese social inventories are low, while COMEX inventories are at a historical high [17]. - Logic and Suggestion: The short - term trading is driven by US copper tariffs. The price is expected to be volatile and weak, and the main contract may range from 76,000 - 79,500 [18]. Other Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Oxide: Spot prices are tightening, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term but with limited upside. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [18][20]. - Aluminum: The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, and the main contract may range from 20,000 - 20,800 [20][22]. - Aluminum Alloy: The market is in a weak state with both supply and demand being weak. The main contract may range from 19,200 - 20,000 [23][24]. - Zinc: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The main contract may range from 21,500 - 23,000 [24][27]. - Tin: The short - term macro - environment is volatile. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [27][31]. - Nickel: The macro - risk has increased, and the industry has over - supply. The main contract may range from 118,000 - 126,000 [31][33]. - Stainless Steel: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The main contract may range from 12,500 - 13,000 [35][37]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is relatively strong, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The main contract may range from 60,000 - 65,000 [38][42]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis weakened [43]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of raw materials has limited upside potential, and the profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [43]. - Supply: The production decreased slightly from the high level, with a more significant decrease in rebar production [44]. - Demand: The apparent demand for the five major steel products was stable at a high level, and the demand in the off - season was resilient [44]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products was basically unchanged, with rebar inventory decreasing and hot - rolled coil inventory increasing slightly [44]. - View: The steel price is expected to be volatile during the off - season. The main contract of hot - rolled coil may range from 3,150 - 3,300, and the rebar may range from 3,050 - 3,150 [44]. Iron Ore - Spot and Futures: The spot prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly, and the futures prices rose [46]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron production decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [46]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 47 ports decreased significantly [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [47]. - View: Iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2509 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread operation [47]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The futures prices rose, and the spot market was strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may decline slightly. It is recommended to conduct positive spread operations and consider hedging [48][51]. - Coke: The fourth - round price cut was implemented on June 23. The price is approaching the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may decline. It is recommended to conduct positive spread operations and consider hedging [52][54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot: The prices of soybean meal were stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal increased slightly, and the trading volume was 1,200 tons [55]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean export and growth data, Brazilian soybean export data, and EU soybean import data were provided [55][56]. - Outlook: The market is bottom - grinding, and the soybean meal price is in a short - term bottom - grinding state [56]. Other Agricultural Products - Pig: The spot price is oscillating. The market has potential supply pressure, and the 09 contract has upward pressure [57][58]. - Corn: The spot price decreased slightly. The short - term price decline is limited, and the price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [59][60].